- Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov urged fellow citizens to think about how they are ready to “join the defense of the state.” In a column for Ukrainska Pravda, the minister recalled that at the beginning of 2022, the law “On the Foundations of National Resistance” came into force in Ukraine. Soon, he promised, the authorities would inform citizens about how they can join the territorial defense forces that will be created under the new law.
- On Monday morning, it became known that the United States, and then Great Britain, Australia and Germany began to take out diplomats and their families from Ukraine. This was explained by the “growing threat from Russia.” The possibility of evacuating its citizens, including embassy staff, is also being studied by the Japanese government. In Moscow, such actions were called strange.
- President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky held telephone conversations with President of the European Council Charles Michel. Kiev said that the parties discussed the preparation of a broad package of preventive economic and political sanctions that could prevent further escalation.
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Spiegel reported on the discussion in the European Commission of new sanctions against Russia for the “Russification of the annexed territories” in Crimea. The publication claims that initially this proposal caused doubts in Germany, but later Berlin changed its position.
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The deputy head of the People’s Militia Department of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, Eduard Basurin, said that the Ukrainian army on the line of confrontation in the Donbass is preparing for an offensive. According to reconnaissance, tanks and artillery are being transferred to the conflict zone, and vacations of all personnel in the motorized infantry and mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been suspended.
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The Kremlin highly appreciated the possibility of an offensive by the Ukrainian army in the Donbass. According to presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov, this is evidenced by the fact that Kiev is concentrating “a huge amount of forces and means” on the line of contact.
How did the aggravation of the conflict around Ukraine begin?
- Reports that Russia was building up its military presence on the border with Ukraine began to appear in the Western media in October 2021. In particular, European and American officials told The Washington Post about “unusual movements of equipment and military personnel in the western regions of Russia.”
- In November, The New York Times, citing sources, reported that US intelligence had warned its European colleagues that “there was little time left” to prevent Moscow from launching military operations in a neighboring country.
- The Kremlin said that the movement of Russian troops across the country’s territory is exclusively Russia’s business. Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that “Ukraine is most likely seeking another attempt to start a forceful solution to its own problem” and that “those who themselves brought their armed forces from across the ocean speak of unusual military activity.”
- On December 1, after the meeting of the foreign ministers of the NATO countries, the United States threatened Russia that in the event of aggression against Ukraine, they would impose sanctions that had not been there before.
- On December 7, Russian and US Presidents Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden held two-hour talks via video link. Ukraine was among the main topics. Biden spoke about the “threatening” nature of the movements of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border and about possible sanctions in the event of an escalation of the situation. Putin responded by saying that NATO was building up capabilities at Russian borders and that Moscow was interested in legal guarantees that the alliance would not expand eastward.
- A week later, Russia handed over draft agreements on security guarantees to the United States.
- A new conversation between Putin and Biden, this time by telephone, took place shortly before the New Year. Security guarantees were again the main topic. The Kremlin called the conversation frank and useful, while the White House called it serious and meaningful.
What are Russia and NATO trying to agree on?
Russia is negotiating with the US and NATO on security guarantees. Among the main issues is the reduction of tension around Ukraine. Negotiations are taking place at different levels, both face-to-face and over the phone. Their first round ended last week with a meeting between the heads of the Russian and US diplomatic departments, Sergei Lavrov, and Anthony Blinken. Washington is expected to give Moscow a written response this week to its security proposals put forward in December. Then the negotiations will continue.
- The draft agreements on security guarantees, which Russia handed over to the US and NATO in mid-December, consist of several points. Among them, the refusal to use other states to prepare an attack on each other, the refusal to expand NATO to the east, the absence of US bases in the countries of the former USSR, the refusal to deploy armed forces in areas where their deployment would be perceived as a threat, NATO’s refusal to conduct military activities in Ukraine, refusal to deploy nuclear weapons abroad.
- Washington and Brussels indicated that they were ready to discuss some points, but they were not ready to comply with the main requirements. For example, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Russia has no right to veto the entry of Ukraine or any other country into the alliance.
- US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, in turn, pointed out that some of Russia’s proposals are “impossible”, including the refusal to admit Ukraine and Georgia to NATO.
- In the United States, the EU and NATO have repeatedly declared common approaches in regard to the situation around Ukraine and negotiations with Russia. At the same time, there are certain differences in the positions of the countries and their steps. So, at the end of January, Great Britain agreed to transfer anti-tank guns to Ukraine, while the German authorities refused to send howitzers to Kiev and opposed the provision of old Soviet stockpiles of weapons to Ukraine, which are located in Estonia.
What does the West threaten Moscow in the event of an “invasion of Ukraine”
- Since December, American President Joe Biden has repeatedly said that in the event of an escalation, Russia will face sanctions that have never been seen before and that Vladimir Putin has “never seen”. On January 20, he named among the possible consequences that Russian banks will not be able to conduct transactions with dollars.
In January, the US Senate released a draft of the Democrat sanctions, which implies:
- restrictions against Russian high-ranking officials (including President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu);
- sanctions against at least three organizations from the list are Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank, VEB, RDIF, MKB, Alfa-Bank, Rosselkhozbank, Otkritie, Promsvyazbank, Sovcombank, Transcapitalbank;
- a ban on any transactions with Russian sovereign debt (including secondary placement: last summer, sanctions against the purchase of government bonds in the primary market already came into force);
- sanctions against Nord Stream 2;
- blocking secondary sanctions against SWIFT and its Russian alternative.
The proposals were also presented in the Republican Party, the author was Congressman Jim Banks. His draft also proposes to introduce restrictions against high-ranking Russians, starting with the president (but Banks’ list is wider than that of the Democrats); in addition, the politician proposed declaring Russia a sponsor of terrorism.
- Reuters also reported on possible US restrictions on the supply of electronics to Russia. We are talking about microcircuits and semiconductors produced using American technologies. The head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Denis Manturov, said that such restrictions would primarily hit the producers themselves, who would lose an attractive market. The minister explained such a proposal as an attempt by the Americans to oust even potential competitors.
- London also threatened Moscow with sanctions, but not only in the event of an “invasion” of Ukraine, but also in an attempt to establish a “puppet” regime there.
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- US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken explained that Washington would not impose preventive sanctions, as in this case they would lose their deterrent effect.
- Europe also ruled out preventive sanctions. Possible EU restrictions are under discussion. According to Euractiv, citing sources, the issue of disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT system may be removed from the agenda. This is supported by several countries, including Germany. On January 17, Handelsblatt reported on the EU’s fears that Russia’s shutdown could lead to destabilization of the European financial market and the creation of an alternative payment system that would be more difficult to control.
- In addition, Germany opposed the idea of imposing sanctions on all major banks, as this would complicate settlements with Russia, including in the gas issue.
- In addition, Austria said that the sanctions would not affect the Russian gas sector and Nord Stream 2.