After long years of exile, two important Chadian rebel leaders returned Thursday, August 18, to N’Djamena. After trying in vain to overthrow former President Idriss Déby Itno on multiple occasions, Timan Erdimi, leader of the Union of Resistance Forces (UFR), and Mahamat Nouri, leader of the Union of Forces for Democracy and Development (UFDD), have decided to play the opening.
Both must participate in the Grand Inclusive National Dialogue (DNI), which opens this Saturday, August 20. These discussions are supposed to lead to free and democratic elections allowing the transfer of power to civilians.
► What is the political situation in Chad today?
In April 2021, President Idriss Déby Itno, at the head of Chad for more than thirty years, was killed while going to the front against the rebels. His son, General Mahamat Idriss Déby, commander of the presidential guard, was then appointed head of a Transitional Military Council (CMT), alongside 15 generals loyal to his father.
Mahamat Idriss Déby then repeals the Constitution and dissolves Parliament. Chad’s new strongman forms a new government and appoints the members of a transitional parliament. He promises new institutions and free and democratic elections, at the end of an eighteen-month transition. This transition phase should end next October.
► What are the challenges of this inclusive national dialogue?
“This dialogue must be an open discussion on the Constitutional Charter and the conditions for holding elections”, explains Enrica Picco, director of the Central Africa project of the International Crisis Group.
1,400 delegates (members of trade unions, political parties, parliament and armed groups) meet to discuss several issues: state reform, the electoral process, economic and social problems.
“The preparation of the DNI was complicated. Scheduled for January, it was postponed to May and then to August,” comments Enrica Picco. According to this expert, the deadline is too short to organize elections by the end of October. “But there is a consensus in the country, it is better to prolong the transition and to arrive at the elections in an acceptable context rather than to rush the ballot and see the Déby clan remain in power”, she continues. The charter of the transition period stipulates that it is renewable once.
► What are the limits?
For this DNI to take place, a “pre-dialogue” between the transitional government and the rebel groups that have carried out numerous offensives in Chad was imperative. On August 8, after long discussions in Doha, Qatar, around forty armed groups signed a peace agreement with the junta.
But the Front pour l’alternance et la concorde au Tchad (Fact), one of the main armed groups behind the offensive that cost the life of Idriss Déby, did not sign it. He will therefore not participate in the national dialogue. “Fact’s non-participation remains a problem because it was the rebel group that kind of triggered the transition,” decrypts Enrica Picco.
Part of the opposition will also be absent from the discussions. Wakit Tamma, a group of opposition parties, accuses the junta of preparing General Mahamat Idriss Déby’s presidential candidacy. The latter had undertaken, at the beginning of the transition, not to appear.
“A lot of emphasis has been placed on the return of armed group leaders, but they are only part of the equation. If civil society and the opposition do not participate in the DNI, it will be a failure”, estime Enrica Picco.