New infections decreased by about 15,000 compared to last week. the sixth day in descent, had not happened since November 2020. Surprised the experts: But not yet herd immunity
LONDON – One decline in Covid cases that surprises the experts.
Yesterday 24,950 new infections were recorded in Great Britain. This is a reduction of about 15,000 compared to last week, when 39,995 new cases were detected: a decrease that appears even more marked when compared to the data of July 17, a few days before the end of the restrictions for the containment of the virus, when they came. 54,654 new positives detected.
If early to talk about the trend, it is about the sixth consecutive downhill day for the contagion curve. It hadn’t happened since November 2020, during the first days of the second lockdown.
The surprise of the experts
The British data (here the government table with cases, vaccines, hospitalizations and deaths) surprise the epidemiologists themselves. Why is a decrease so rapid and sharp, between the other just in the vicinity of the complete reopening and the end of restrictions in England as well as in much of the rest of the country? If there has been a reduction in tampons (at the moment about 792,000 are done daily, about 6.5 million were done in the last week, a decrease of 10.1%) , this is not enough to explain the decline in cases, which are falling by around 21.5% every week. How come?
The increase in hospitalizations and deaths
Downing Street has taken a cautious stance. The data is encouraging, the prime minister’s spokesman stressed, but we are not out of the tunnel yet. The impact of the Freedom Day , which entered into force on July 19, still to be seen, he specified. If in these days the executive is changing the rules on isolation for those who come into contact with a positive case – those who work in sectors such as emergency services, the health system and transport, have been vaccinated and test negative for the swab it no longer has the obligation to respect the quarantine – there are some elements that worry the government, as well as scientists. In fact, admissions continue to rise. In England Covid patients in hospital have passed the threshold of 5,000 patients for the first time since last March, while weekly hospitalizations across the country have reached 5,496, an increase of about 26% compared to last week. Deaths are also increasing: 445 in the past seven days, few, but still 50% more than the previous week.
The hypotheses to explain the decline in new cases
What happens then? For some experts, it contributed to the decline in cases the end of the school year. In the country’s institutions, children are swabbed at least twice a week. Among the school population there is a high percentage of positivity even if a very low incidence of serious illnesses. With the end of the schools, the trips by car together, the afternoon parties, the chatting between adults in front of the gates also ended, a spokesman for the health ministry specified.
It is also possible that the end of the European football championshipsO accelerated the decline: matches had led to gatherings in indoor venues and an increase in broadcasts.
Finally, the herd immunity effect should be considered: 88.1% of the adult population got the first dose of the vaccine, 70.5% completed the vaccination process.
Per l’Office of National Statistics (qui i dati ) 90% of the adult population – between cured and vaccinated – has antibodies to Covid, but overall, if we also count minors, only half of the population has been vaccinated.
According to Rowland Kao, an epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, the nature of the decline suggests a link to single events rather than immunity. very clear – he explained – more similar to what happens when a lockdown is imposed and social contacts are interrupted as well as broadcasts. The decline due to immunity is usually more gradual.
Maybe, Kao points out, that it is a temporary phenomenon, before a more permanent direction is taken.
July 27, 2021 (change July 27, 2021 | 22:11)
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