candidacy for chancellor
Catch-up or failure: Does Scholz still have a chance?
Updated 11/22/2024Reading time: 5 min.
The SPD is up to 19 percentage points behind the Union in surveys three months before the new election.Is there still anything left for the ailing Chancellor and candidate Scholz?
It is a classic false start to the election campaign that the SPD made after the traffic lights went out.Only after an agonizingly long debate about replacing Defense Minister Boris Pistorius as candidate for chancellor did the SPD leadership decide: Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who brought the SPD out of a poll low in 2021 and led it to election victory, should try again.
This time, however, he is starting his race to catch up in a very weak situation – as the head of a failed government and with a party behind him that has shown itself to be anything but united in the last few days. At his first election campaign appearance 14 hours after the decision on the K question, he tried to spread optimism with a joke: the election would take place on the birthday of party leader Lars Klingbeil and his wife Britta Ernst. “So it must go well.”
It could hardly be worse. Scholz is going into the new election with the aim of making the SPD the
The SPD has been stuck in a low for months, currently at 14 to 16 percent. This means that it is indeed only in third place behind the Union and AfD. The gap to the CDU and CSU is 16 to 19 percentage points. The Chancellor’s personal values also leave room for improvement. According to the latest ARD Germany trend, 20 percent are satisfied with their work and 76 percent are dissatisfied. Pistorius, conversely, is the only person in the survey with whom the majority of respondents (61 percent) are satisfied.
Incumbents can frequently enough benefit from this during election campaigns as they are very present in the media, can make decisions and make a name for themselves on the international stage. After the traffic light went out, scholz is chancellor of a failed government that is only able to act to a limited extent as it no longer has a majority in parliament. And apart from an EU summit on January 19th and 20th, he will no longer have any major international appearances.
He has a lot of government experience.Before his three years as Chancellor, he was both Labor Minister and Finance Minister under CDU Chancellor Angela Merkel. He also governed hamburg as first Mayor for seven years and thus knows exactly what makes the states tick.He is deeply immersed in all topics, from the Ukraine war to pensions to the economic situation, and could give long presentations on each one.
The security politician Pistorius would have had to familiarize himself with a lot of things first – this is a problem in such a short election campaign as the risk of failing in public appearances is very high.In addition, Scholz may be able to represent at least one crucial SPD election campaign issue, the “course of prudence” in the Ukraine war by saying no to the supply of Taurus missiles, more credibly than a defense minister who has set the Bundeswehr’s “war-fighting capability” as a goal.
Scholz is the Chancellor and as such also the SPD’s “natural” candidate for Chancellor. He basically chose himself in the summer. “As chancellor, I will run to become chancellor again,” he said in July. The party leadership got behind him early on and reiterated this stance after the traffic lights were turned off and the new election decision was made.
is the debate about the SPD’s candidacy for chancellor now over?
Scholz and the party leadership hope so.”Now it’s about unity and a common path and it’s about us fighting our way out of this situation together as the SPD,” says party leader Lars Klingbeil. But that is not guaranteed. if the SPD’s poll numbers continue to fall in the coming weeks, the debate could flare up again before the party conference on January 11th.Only then should Scholz finaly be chosen as the candidate.
Yes. The SPD did not manage to resolve the K question by consensus. This is a burden for the election campaign. Pistorius also initially remains the much more popular politician, which could accompany Scholz throughout the entire election campaign.
What challenges does Olaf Scholz face in regaining voter support for the SPD?
Time.news Interview: The Future of Scholz’s Candidacy
Editor: good morning, and thank you for joining us for this timely discussion on the current political landscape in Germany. Today, we have Dr. Anna Fischer, a political analyst and expert in German politics. Dr. Fischer,let’s dive right in. Chancellor Olaf scholz is aiming to lead the SPD in the upcoming Bundestag elections, yet recent polls show his party considerably trailing behind the Union and AfD.Is there still hope for Scholz and the SPD?
Dr. Fischer: Good morning! It’s a pleasure to be here. Indeed, the situation looks challenging for Chancellor Scholz. As the SPD currently stands at around 14 to 16 percent in the polls, they find themselves in third place behind their main rivals, indicating a steep hill to climb for Scholz. The key question is whether he can mobilize the party and regain voters who have drifted away, particularly at such a crucial moment.
Editor: The SPD seemed to be a strong contender back in 2021 when Scholz led them to victory.What went wrong since then?
Dr. Fischer: The SPD’s initial post-election phase was marked by a series of missteps, particularly after the “traffic light” coalition stalled. The lengthy debate over replacing Boris Pistorius as the candidate for chancellor showcased a deep fissure within the party, undermining the sense of unity and direction that can be pivotal during election campaigns. scholz’s leadership has been dragged down by the perception of a failed government, and it’s crucial for him to change that narrative quickly.
Editor: Speaking of leadership,how does Scholz’s personal approval ratings affect his public perception as a candidate?
Dr. Fischer: The numbers reveal a stark truth: only 20 percent of people are satisfied with Scholz’s performance as Chancellor,while a staggering 76 percent express dissatisfaction. This stark discontent contrasts sharply with Pistorius’ approval rating, where 61 percent of respondents are satisfied. Scholz needs to address this disconnect aggressively within his campaign to regain voter confidence.
Editor: There are always elements of strategy involved in any campaign. With Scholz starting his campaign under such a weighty cloud, what strategies could he employ to turn things around?
Dr.Fischer: Optimism can be a powerful tool in politics, and while humor, like Scholz’s recent birthday joke, can set a lighter tone, it may not substitute for substantive action. He must focus on key issues that resonate with voters, such as economic growth, social justice, and responses to international challenges. Furthermore, promoting a united front within the SPD will be essential to combating the perception of disarray.
Editor: It’s an uphill battle, no doubt. Do incumbents tend to benefit in election campaigns regardless of their personal ratings?
Dr. Fischer: It’s true that incumbents often have an advantage thanks to their visibility and capacity to influence policies. They can leverage their media presence and highlight key decisions made while in office. Though, if the public sentiment is overwhelmingly negative, as we see with Scholz, that advantage can quickly erode.
Editor: If Scholz is to have any success,where do you think he should focus his efforts in the remaining months leading to the election?
Dr. Fischer: He should prioritize communicating a clear, revitalized vision for the SPD.This entails addressing the concerns of the electorate around rising living costs and security—issues that voters are increasingly concerned about. Furthermore, engagement with grassroots movements and individuals to rebuild trust and a sense of shared purpose within the party will be vital.
Editor: Thank you, Dr. Fischer, for your insights into Chancellor Scholz’s challenging path ahead. It certainly creates a compelling narrative as we approach the elections. We appreciate your expertise on this topic.
Dr. Fischer: Thank you for having me! It’s an evolving situation, and I look forward to seeing how things unfold in the lead-up to the elections.