South of Moscow rises in price the fastest
Roman Rodiontsev, director of the Est-a-Tet project consulting department, names three main trends in the new-build market.
1. The portrait of the mortgage borrower has changed: he has become older and wealthier, which is logical given the changes in rates. If the government announces the end of the mortgage subsidy program, this trend will only intensify.
2. Micro-apartments with an area of 9-10 square meters are gaining popularity. The sizes of economy and comfort class apartments continue to decrease. “In the primary market, after the ‘zeroing’ of the preferential mortgage, a decrease in the average area of purchase is recorded, – comments the expert Tsian. Analytics Victoria Kiryukhina. – People began to choose smaller (and at the same time – budget) options. But the highest activity is observed in the segment Due to the record rise in real estate prices, some potential buyers are forced to start or continue to rent apartments instead of the planned move to their homes. on the rental market “.
3. The average cost per square meter in the city shows a slight increase, but in different regions the prices differ dramatically.
“There is an almost threefold difference in cost between the most expensive and the most affordable in terms of prices for new buildings, Moscow districts,” comments Vladimir Shchekin, founder and co-owner of the Rodina Group. – From the point of view of the quality characteristics of housing, the gap between them is not so great. We see how the demand for housing in the Troitsky Administrative District is growing from clients who have recently considered buying an apartment within the Moscow Ring Road.
Over the past year, the fastest growing in price were new buildings in the Southern District: a square meter grew by 42%. It is followed by the northeast (by 39%). In the penultimate place is the southwest (plus 22%). And in less than 12 months, “square” has risen in price in the Northern District – by 16%.
According to the “Real Estate Market Indicators”, at the end of November a square meter in the “old” Moscow market cost an average of 241 thousand rubles. (excluding elite housing and atypical apartments, which distort the overall picture upward) – 0.9% more than a month earlier. In dollars, prices for metropolitan apartments in November added 0.7% and reached $ 3350 per sq. m.
Modern and Soviet panels, as well as Soviet bricks, rose in price by 1-1.5%. At the same time, formally the cheapest on the market, but already almost equal in price per meter with a more acceptable quality standard Khrushchev panel and highly overvalued monolithic brick houses in November added only 0.6-0.7%.
Russians resigned themselves to pandemic reality
According to bnMap.pro, of all new buildings in Moscow over the last autumn month, only an extremely small economy class fell slightly in price: by 5.6% (to 239.3 thousand rubles per square meter). Comfort class rose in price by 7.8% (to 278.9 thousand rubles), business class – by 1.4% (to 401.3 thousand rubles), premium – by 1.2% (to 852 , 9 thousand rubles), and deluxe – by 1.8% (up to 1.649 million rubles). The average price of an apartment in “old” Moscow in November was 13 million rubles, in New Moscow – 10.3 million rubles.
“Autumn is traditionally an active period for the real estate market, but this year the non-working week and new restrictive measures made some adjustments to the activity,” says Victoria Kiryukhina. – In November, the secondary real estate market won more than others, which is associated with a partial redistribution of demand from the primary market to the secondary market due to the “zeroing” of the preferential mortgage. The average price per square meter in the Russian secondary market increased by 2.3% – up to 95.4 thousand rubles. (from 93.2 thousand rubles).
In capitals, growth is more restrained due to already high prices. In Moscow, the average cost of a “square” increased over the month by 1.3%, to 290.1 thousand rubles, in St. Petersburg – by 1.9%, to 185.8 thousand rubles. Sellers are careful about indexing so as not to lose potential buyers. But at the same time, for example, in the Moscow region the rise in prices per month is much more significant (plus 3%), up to 148.5 thousand rubles. It is curious that the “new items” on the market are becoming more expensive than houses that have been on sale for a long time.
– November turned out to be much more modest than October in terms of “new items”: only three new projects appeared in Moscow, while ten went on sale a month earlier, – says Irina Dobrokhotova, managing partner of Dombook, chairman of the board of directors of BEST-Novostroy. – The delivery times for new projects are longer than for earlier ones, there are more new buildings with a construction period of five years. And the demand for construction sites, which increased in summer and autumn, is becoming less active.
Do not forget that the market is actively replenishing at the expense of old apartments, including “hereditary” ones. They are cheaper both because of the legal history (the way of obtaining ownership as a result of inheritance) and because of the morally outdated concept of the house.
– People are moving away from the concept of fashion and making long-term plans, because the reality around us has changed, and everyone is used to it. As an explanation, last year’s boom in suburban real estate can be cited. It became clear that this was a pronounced short-term trend in order to escape from urban isolation and be able to spend a vacation in the fresh air at least somewhere, – says Yulia Dymova, director of the Est-a-Tet secondary real estate sales office. life, make plans for the family for the long term.
In business class, tenants continue to buy out rented apartments from landlords. They do not want to give away significant amounts on a monthly basis without any prospects and intend to fix the monthly costs by making them mortgage payments, not rent.
Developers will have to fight for buyers
Another trend in the fall of 2021 is a reduction in the exposure period. On average, in the secondary market among large cities, we are talking about 100 days (versus 120 in the fall of last year). Increased competition also contributes to the rise in prices and the reduction in the time it takes to find a buyer. The choice of buyers is getting smaller: the number of offers for the sale of secondary housing in large cities is 29.5% lower than a year ago.
– November for the real estate market turned out to be quite a stable month. The rise in prices slowed down, developers traditionally began to introduce pre-New Year promotions. Therefore, there was a slight revival in demand, – says the head of the sales department of Catuar Development Oksana Fedoseyeva. – We see the interest of buyers in low-rise suburban housing, which, in contrast to high-rise, does not rise in price so much, less than 15% per year.
– Over the year, the average cost of new buildings in Moscow has grown by about 37%: in the mass segment – by 35%, in the business class segment – by 39%, in New Moscow – by 25%. As for the further rise in prices, it will depend on the financial models of developers, – says the commercial director of 3S Group Dmitry Pichugin.
The increase in the cost of housing is due to several factors. The first is the increase in the cost of Moscow land: over the year it added 15-20% in price. The second is the increase in the cost of building materials. The third is the closure of borders, the outflow of migrants, and, consequently, the rise in the cost of labor due to its shortage. The fourth is inflation. Fifth – the struggle of developers for a buyer, which is expressed in improving the quality of houses. “Against the backdrop of growing competition, developers are increasingly leaving for the decoration of residential complexes, digital solutions. Those who know how to work with pricing remain within the boundaries of market prices. And those who overestimate their ambitions for demand and overheated prices will have to adjust the cost of housing under the guise of New Year’s promotions, “says Yevgenia Starkova, Marketing Director of MR Group. As for the more distant future, developers will obviously have to increase the budgets of their projects by 15-50%, which clearly will not contribute to a decrease in apartment prices.
Demand will be influenced by the weather
“In the last quarter of 2021, we observe how the market is restructuring without surges in price and demand,” says Yana Glazunova, CEO of VSN Realty. – As expected, after the change in the terms of concessional lending, there is a gradual reduction in the number of mortgage transactions. But in comparison with the pre-pandemic values, their volumes are still large. In the third quarter of 2021, the share of mortgage transactions was 62%, and in the fourth quarter of 2019 this figure reached only 44%.
Natalia Kuznetsova, General Director of the Bon Ton Real Estate Agency, calls one of the main trends in November promoting a variety of mortgage subsidy programs with partner banks. The only way to support sales is to make lending for the consumer as acceptable as possible, the specialist believes. But how long will developers be able to restrain rates? Alas, the answer is no.
– We expect mortgage rates to rise to 9.5-10% by early 2022. So in the near future there is no need to wait for the growth of prices for new buildings to stop, – Dmitry Pichugin believes.
In the context of the monetary policy of the Central Bank, aimed at increasing the key rate to reduce inflation, mortgage rates will continue to grow, agrees Deputy General Director of ProGorod LLC Alexei Ionov. This will intensify consumer interest in the market of new buildings, which are still the most reliable and profitable investment instrument, especially taking into account targeted mortgage programs with state support from 4% (family, Far Eastern, etc.). In December and early next year, deferred demand will become a factor in the growth of prices by at least 2-3% in the primary housing market.
According to the forecasts of Est-a-Tet specialists, if the current conditions in the secondary market remain unchanged, prices will continue to rise up to 3%. In January, there are two possible ways of development of events: either there will be stabilization, or, on the contrary, an increase in supply and activity of sellers. It is difficult to imagine what will happen in the near future. Even the weather, as well as coronavirus restrictions, could have an impact. “In February, we can most likely talk about a revival of the market and just about a 3% rise in prices. It is still difficult to predict further,” says Yulia Dymova.
– The market is stylishly overheated. However, as early as next year, the rise in prices may resume – approximately at the level of inflation, – says the head of the analytical center “Indicators of the real estate market” Oleg Repchenko. – The high cost per square meter allowed developers to form a financial cushion, so they are not afraid of a possible period of decline in demand (for example, in early January). Despite the large total supply, a shortage of liquid, demanded options is observed in all segments. It was they who were bought up in the first place during the excitement and will quickly leave in the future.
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