2023-06-02 11:31:00
See you on October 5 in Granada! It is facing the Mediterranean and Africa that the third summit of the European Political Community will take place. A complete change of scenery after Thursday’s meeting in Chisinau, capital of the Moldova, at the gates of Ukraine at war. The cohort of Heads of State and Government – forty-seven, from all over Europe except Russia and Belarus – thus became aware of the plurality and unity of the continent. The first stop had taken place end of 2022 in Prague and the next, in 2024, will be in the UK.
What’s its use the European Political Community (the CPE, for insiders)? The idea germinated after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. It was formalized by Emmanuel Macron before the European Parliament and very quickly adopted. The objective is to crystallize the unity of all Europeans in the face of the Kremlin, to demonstrate the opposition between two visions of international relations: one based on cooperation and respect for the law, the other on aggressiveness and the law of the strongest. The challenge is also to stabilize the countries exposed to the shock of Russian aggression. Those of the European Union have been able to count on community solidarity. But the others face the events in scattered order.
CPE aims to create a sense of cohesion, while other tensions remain high, such as between Serbia and Kosovo or between Armenia and Azerbaijan. For the candidate countries for the Union, it could also make it possible to become familiar with a demanding normative universe, even without having yet digested the famous “community acquis”. Designed as a flexible body, without a secretariat, it will undoubtedly record modest results. But it perhaps foreshadows the Europe of tomorrow.
In the field of security, the most likely scenario is that the next few years – even decades – will be marked by deep mistrust between Russia and the rest of the continent. The borders of this new cold war are not yet fixed: they will depend on the outcome of the current conflict. Barring a regime change in Moscow, which is highly unlikely, a lasting confrontation will take place, based on mutual deterrence between NATO – i.e. the United States, the main decision maker of the Atlantic Alliance – and Russia. Each, feeling threatened by the other, will take refuge behind massive defense systems. Economies will remain decoupled, cultural exchanges will be limited. The spirits will be marked on the scale of a generation.
West of the dividing line, the European Union will be the main engine of the new Europe. But it will be subject to profound changes. Enlargement to a dozen countries is now considered inevitable, so as not to leave spaces in which Russia could rush. It will lead to reforms in the organization of the EU, which must at the same time hold fast to its founding principles: the rule of law, respect for fundamental rights, solidarity and social justice… (1) The EPC is an open door to this prospect for the future. A blueprint for the stability of the continent, from Granada to Chisinau.
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