The main task of the voters of Quebec and Canada, the next day of the federal elections, will be in my humble opinion to teach a lesson to Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada. A lesson in democracy. A lesson in humility. They deserve this correction for several reasons. First, for having called absolutely unnecessary elections. The Canadian government is working. Thanks to the support of two opposition parties on the left flank, the Bloc and the NDP, all Liberal laws are passed or will be passed this fall, regardless of Conservative parliamentary tactics. The budget was passed with reasonable modifications called for by the Bloc and the NDP. Trudeau’s minority government has no chance – none – of being overthrown.
The objective of this election is not to better represent the voters or to clarify the state of public opinion on a divisive subject, or even to obtain a mandate to carry out a new task. The Liberal game plan is known and it will happen, election or not. The aim is to flatter the ego and thirst for power of liberal ministers. The cynicism of the maneuver, now unfolding on the eve of the fourth wave of COVID-19, is obvious.
Democratically unhealthy
Mathematically, the Trudeau team wants to rule the country by obtaining a clearly minority proportion of the votes, but sufficient to win a majority of the seats. This would allow the current Prime Minister to no longer take the proposals of the Bloc and the NDP seriously. It could do without their support, and therefore their advice.
Parliamentary democracy never offers an exact reflection of the popular will. But for now, the Liberals (elected in 2019 with 33% of the vote, and therefore in the minority) are forced to negotiate in good faith with the NDP (16% of the vote) and the Bloc (8%). Through their deputies, 57% of the country’s voters therefore have real weight in government decisions. A democratically healthy situation.
Justin Trudeau hopes to return to the result of 2015, when he could govern alone with 39% of the vote. He therefore wishes to preside over a regression of the representativeness of his government. A democratically unhealthy goal.
All the more so since he won his 2015 election by promising to reform the electoral system so that never again a party can govern using these vile calculations. In one of the most heinous about-faces in our modern political life, Trudeau reneged on that promise. He now embarks on an uninhibited quest for an outcome that perfectly embodies the electoral dysfunction he was once elected to fix. For that, he deserves to be put in penance. But not just for that.
The climate issue
Who would have thought that one day a Liberal government with environmentalist Stephen Guilbeault in it would fund the Canadian oil industry more than the previous Conservative government, which had Jason Kenney (and Maxime Bernier) among its key players?
At a time of the climate emergency, it is imperative to maintain the minority character of the government, so that the combined weight of the members of the Bloc and the NDP impose on the Trudeau cabinet a break with the hydrocarbons that it will not be able and will not want. , alone, perform. (Friendly suggestion to the Bloc and the NDP: make the immediate abolition of oil aid an electoral commitment and a condition of support for a future minority government.)
The Quebec issue, the health issue
The sudden interest of the Trudeauists in French and the Quebec national question is not attributable to a sudden awareness of the decline of the language of Vigneault. It stems from the observation of a dual political reality: first, a nationalist government in Quebec dominates the political scene; two, the Bloc Québécois, like a phoenix, is behind the Liberals in the francophone vote.
A majority Justin Trudeau could begin to ignore the political weight of the Bloc, as we have seen. In the saddle for four years, he would also be in a better position to resist Quebec’s demands. However, beyond identity issues, the minority status of the Liberals has so far prevented them from deploying as much as they wish the national health standards they dream of every night. The 2022 budget debate will focus on the size of federal health transfers, which our hospitals absolutely need, and national standards, which they can absolutely do without.
Only maintaining the minority status of the Liberals will allow transfers to be maximized and the imposition of federal standards to be avoided.
In short, Justin and his ministers deserve a sanction. Their punishment is all found: to remain in the minority. Losing even a few feathers in this ballot would be welcome. To get there, there is only one method: vote for the Bloc in Quebec and the NDP elsewhere.