Two doses of Pfizer have reduced hospitalizations by 70% compared to unvaccinated, reinfections are greater, but even in this case being vaccinated protects. Data in line with a new US study on third doses (which increase protection)
There is the first data from South Africa on Omicron’s impact in the real world. They refer to the first 3 weeks and concern a particular audience, the clients of the most important health insurance of the country, which has 3.7 million people (usually they are healthier individuals on average). The Omicron case study is not published, but the data was released by the health company itself.
Hospitalizations reduced by 70% compared to unvaccinated
Out of 211 thousand positives they attributed them to Omicron 78 thousand to be confirmed (in the sense that many are cases yet to be sequenced but on which there is a “suspicion” Omicron after the result of the swab). 41% of the audience was vaccinated with two doses of Pfizer. The results, for this particular audience, are encouraging: 2 doses of Pfizer reduced the chance of hospitalization by 70% compared to those who were not vaccinated. That’s less than Pfizer’s 93% protection against the Delta variant, but it’s considered good for a vaccine. Protection was similar across age groups, only slightly less good after 60 (67% for 60-69 and 59% for 70-79).
Fewer 29% of hospitalizations than in the first wave
The lower protection of the older age group could also be due toweakening of the vaccine after a few months and the consequent lack of a third dose (in South Africa, as in many countries, the elderly were vaccinated first). The other good news comes from the comparison with the variant of the first wave (not Delta), the so-called post-Wuhan named D614G. In his regards hospitalizations caused by Omicron are reduced by 29%. While cases have already reached 60% of the Delta wave total, hospitalizations are now at 20%, so they are proceeding more slowly.
Reinfections possible even after taking Delta
The data also show a disease that lasts less (healing in three days on average) and therefore milder, but many more reinfections of people recovered or vaccinated. The risk of reinfection is 40% for those who had fallen ill with the Delta. However, vaccinated people are 33% less likely to become infected (down from 80% reported for Delta) compared to vaccinated. Also deaths I am lower percentages compared to those recorded in previous waves.
The comparison with Italy is misleading
The only note of concern concerns the children: Most have mild symptoms, but first wave comparisons see a 20% more risk of hospitalization, which however align Omicron with the Delta wave. So far, the data published by the South African health company.
However, the observations from South Africa are not immediately applicable in contexts such as Italy or other European countries: the vaccination rate is much lower (about 26%) and the third dose almost does not exist. At the same time, in some areas the previous infection with Delta has created a base of antibodies in the population that is estimated to reach beyond 70% of people, subjects who are therefore protected (even if only partially) against the risk of hospitalization. Furthermore themiddle age in South Africa he is less than 40 years old. These are all factors that make real-world studies from that country hardly applicable to areas that are known directly and therefore also to Italy.
A London, where Omicron is over 40%, has been there in the last week a 30% increase in hospitalizations and the first news arrives from hospitals that report many mild cases, but also some moderately serious.
For now it is possible to say with a good degree of certainty that Omicron is very contagious, more than Delta, and which, in infections, is capable of overcome the double vaccination barrier. This already makes it a very insidious variant, because it is known that more infected necessarily means more hospitalized (even if perhaps less than the other waves without vaccines or without third doses).
To know better the measure of the intrinsic pathogenicity of Omicron you have to wait: probably the third dose and the previous protection even of two doses (or of the healing) will in any case have a positive impact on the risks of serious disease.
According to the latest study on the matter, of the Rockefeller University still in pre-press, people who have been infected and then vaccinated or who have been vaccinated and then boosted with the third dose have had in the laboratory a 38- to 154-fold increase in neutralizing activity against Omicron.
December 14, 2021 (change December 14, 2021 | 21:54)
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