The international rating organization Fitch Ratings revised the long-term issuer default rating forecast of Armenia from “stable” to “negative” and confirmed the long-term issuer default rating at “BB-” level.
“The shock caused by the coronavirus has negatively affected Armenia’s economy due to its dependence on commodities (most exports), Russia’s economy (remittances, trade and foreign direct investment) and tourism, which is only partially offset by income from low oil prices. This is done against the background of a relatively high level of Armenia’s net external debt and a structural current account deficit, which is only partially financed by capital inflows that do not create debt obligations,” Fitch Ratings said in a statement.
In November 2019, Fitch Ratings upgraded Armenia’s long-term issuer default rating to “B+” with a “stable” outlook.
“Despite a robust macroeconomic policy framework and a sustained propensity for reform, the economic shock has resulted in public debt taking a markedly higher trajectory, and our 2020 projections are associated with downside risks from the COVID-19 outbreak,” – specified in the message.
The authors of the analysis predict that the shock caused by the coronavirus will slow GDP growth from 7.6% in 2019 to 0.5% in 2020.
Fitch forecasts that GDP growth will partially recover to 5.5% in 2021, driven by a recovery in external demand, investment growth, a recovery in consumer spending and increased employment amid a moderate fiscal policy.
(function(d, s, id) {
var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];
if (d.getElementById(id)) return;
js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id;
js.src = “//connect.facebook.net/ru_RU/sdk.js#xfbml=1&version=v2.6&appId=403315783090535”;
fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs);
}(document, ‘script’, ‘facebook-jssdk’));(function(d, s, id) {
var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];
if (d.getElementById(id)) return;
js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id;
js.src = “//connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js#xfbml=1&appId=429534133762584”;
fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs);
}(document, ‘script’, ‘facebook-jssdk’));