2023-12-16 04:14:34
He Euribor The new year is going to start with good news for mortgage holders. They will be the first that families will receive since the index began its brutal rise, almost two years ago now. Although there are a few days left until the end of the month, the reference is on track to suffer a sharp drop in December, so it will be the first time in two years that mortgage holders experience a reduction in their payments. Of course, it won’t be all of them. Only those who have a semiannual review of their fees will see them reduced.
The mortgage reference is currently at 3.644% in daily rate, so that The provisional monthly average for December is 3.753%. Closing the month at this level would mean a clear setback compared to previous ones, since the index had not registered a similar level since April. The data for December is even below that of the fourth month of the year.
This data implies good news for holders of variable mortgages, but not for everyone. This type of loans is reviewed either annually or semi-annually, depending on the conditions signed in each contract. And to carry out this review, the difference between the Euribor data of the month and that of twelve or six months before is taken as a reference.
[El Euríbor baja en noviembre por segunda vez desde la subida de tipos: los expertos creen que ya ha tocado techo]
A year ago, the twelve-month Euribor closed December at 3.018%, that is, below the figure that is expected to be registered in the last month of 2023, so those who have to review their quota annually with this month’s reference they will still experience a rise.
Those who have semiannual reviews, however, will see their fees go down. Last June the Euribor closed at 4.007%so the December reference will predictably be lower.
Turn in the evolution of the Euribor
During the last few weeks, the Euribor has taken a turn. After rising steadily for twenty months, she experienced her first decline in August. It later rose in September and October, after which it fell again in November.
As this newspaper reported, experts already considered in November that the Euribor had reached its ceiling and everything indicates that this is the case, since in December it is experiencing sharp declines. It started the month at 4%, after which it has gradually decreased to 3.644%.
Break and lower rates
Behind this evolution are the latest movements of the European Central Bank (ECB). After fifteen months of increasing rates without brakes, the Governing Council of the institution decided in October to stop the increases and since then the rates have remained unchanged.
The Euribor, whose evolution is parallel to that of the price of money, has been reflecting in recent weeks the effect of the halt in interest rate increases and the possibility of decreases next year.
[Lagarde aleja los recortes de tipos: “Aún no es hora de bajar la guardia contra la inflación”]
The market is beginning to set dates for the reversal of the increase in interest rates after the Federal Reserve will confirm on Wednesday that it anticipates a 75 basis point cut in 2024.
The ECB, however, does not give projections on cuts and, in fact, Christine Lagardeits president, stated this week that the possibility of lowering rates It has not even been discussed in the Government Council.
According to him, without specifying deadlines, the price of money must remain at the current maximum level of 4.5% (as the Governing Council did at its meeting this Thursday) for long enough to ensure that inflation falls sustainably to the 2% target. However, the market is already predicting rate cuts for the middle of next year, something that is reflected in the evolution of the Euribor.
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