2023-10-09 21:12:03
Economic activity should record a slight increase of 0.1% in the third quarter against a backdrop of slowing inflation, the Bank of France indicated on Monday October 9.
Growth: the French economy grew by 0.5% in the second quarter, more than expected
Although resilient between July and September, activity should nevertheless mark a clear slowdown after the unexpected rebound of 0.5% in gross domestic product (GDP) observed in the second quarter.
Far from a recession situation
“The economic situation after the summer is less favorable than that which we had just before the summer”declared Olivier Garnier, general director of statistics, studies and international affairs at the Banque de France, presenting the institution’s new monthly economic survey.
More “we are not at all (…) in a recession situation”, he added during a press briefing. In September, the central bank said it expected an increase of 0.1% to 0.2% in GDP in the third quarter.
From July to September, activity would have benefited from the end of disruptions in supply chains, the positive effect of the restart of nuclear reactors and the resistance of services such as accommodation or catering, according to the Bank of France. On the price front, the trend is still towards appeasement thanks to an easing of raw material prices and the slightest supply difficulties.
Growth of 0.9% for the whole of 2023
Thus, 7% of manufacturers declared having increased their selling prices in September, compared to 29% a year earlier; 6% even lowered them, according to this survey carried out among around 8,500 business leaders between September 27 and October 4. In the agri-food sector, a sector where a government bill wishes to advance commercial negotiations with the hope of accelerating price reductions in stores, as many business leaders (7%) have reduced as increased their prices. price (compared to 2% and 43% respectively a year ago).
In detail, in the month of September alone, activity remained almost stable in the industry. It made progress in the finishing work of the building and services, the latter having notably benefited from a Rugby World Cup effect and mild weather.
For October, activity should rebound slightly in industry, while it should continue to progress in services and building finishing work. Structural work would fall sharply in a context of high rates. Recruitment difficulties, although declining, remain high (48% in September compared to 50% in August). For the whole of 2023, the Banque de France expects growth of 0.9%, a little less than the government forecast (1%).
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