What does the fall of the dictator Assad in Syria mean? Green foreign politician Omid Nouripour sees Iran and Russia weakened – and Turkish President Erdoğan in an important role.
Over the weekend, Omid Nouripour posted a photo of the Wikipedia page about Bashar al-Assad on Instagram. Assad is now described there as a “Syrian politician who was President of Syria from 2000 to 2024”. Nouripour wrote: “I had never cried for joy while reading a Wikipedia article…”
Omid Nouripour has followed the brutal conflict in Syria since the civil war began in 2011 as a foreign policy expert for the Greens. But that’s not the only reason why the former Green Party leader is now so moved. In an interview with t-online, he talks about joy despite great uncertainty, Erdoğan’s responsibility and a cynical German debate.
t-online: Mr. Nouripour, you wrote on Sunday that you had to cry for joy when Assad was overthrown. What was going through your mind?
Omid Nouripour: The fact that the mass murderer Assad is no longer in power is simply overwhelming. This is also due to the speed at which this happened. Nobody saw that coming. I have seen so much suffering in this country. I have had so many friends who are no longer alive. I thought about people who suffered endlessly. The moment was simply moving for me. Even if, of course, we don’t know what will happen next and so many things can still go wrong.
As a child you had to flee Iran with your family because of the war. In moments like these, does politics become even more personal than usual?
Yes, of course, memories come back. There are also regional connections: the fact that the same people who enslave their own people in Iran played a key role in enabling Assad to commit all these crimes was always unbearable.
Omid Nouripour49 years old, has been a member of the Bundestag for the Green Party since 2006, focusing on foreign policy. From 2002 until November of this year he was federal chairman of the party with Ricarda Lang. He was born in Tehran and fled to Germany with his family when he was 13 because of the Gulf War.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas was quick to say that Assad’s overthrow shows how weak Iran and Russia are as his supporters. Are you also that optimistic?
She is absolutely right. In international conflict research there is the term “power projection”. It’s about how powerful a country appears. In Syria in particular, Russia has repeatedly managed to appear very powerful with minimal effort. This effect was completely shattered the moment a few militias overthrew Assad with incredible speed, without the nuclear power Russia being able to do anything.
This is especially true for Iran. Especially since there are simply great material losses for both states. For the Iranians, their bridge to supply Hezbollah has disappeared. It is not at all clear to the Russians what will happen next with their military base in Tartus, i.e. the Russian bridge to the eastern Mediterranean. These are tough defeats for Russia and Iran.
How worried are you that Abu Mohammed al-Julani is leading the insurgents, a man who had connections to the IS terrorist militia and the Al-Nusra Front?
This is a big cause for concern. People like Julani were the toughest jihadists that ever existed. At the same time, in the last few weeks he has managed to set up a very broad alliance with secular and, in some cases, credibly democratic forces.
What does this mean for the future of Syria?
There is absolutely no reason to assume that everything will get better by itself. But there is also no reason to automatically assume that the jihadists will be able to establish a caliphate. That depends on many factors, both military and political.