There is little data from Beijing but it appears that the variants are all Omicron sub-lineages. All eyes are on XBB, which has seen a surge in hospitalizations in New York and has what it takes to oust other variants
Which variant is circulating in China
? Impossible to say, given that the sequences deposited in international (and shared) repositories such as Gisaid and Pango are very few compared to the amount of infections suspected to be taking place in the Asian country. At first glance the good news, though, is that they appear to be all under Omicron variantstherefore of a type of SARS-CoV-2 virus that has been circulating for some time in Europe and in the rest of the world and to which many have some degree of immunity (deriving from vaccines or from previous infection).
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The first sequencings carried out in Lombardy from passengers from China highlighted only Omicron variants, in particular: B 5.7, BA 5.2, BE 1.1.1, BF 7, BQ 1.1.
From China, on the other hand, (few) sequences of XBB, BF.7, BA.5.2 e BA.2.3.20 which they are all Omicron and signal an introduction from outside to the Asian country. The sub-variants in question, in fact, have all been known for some time and are under observation by the World Health Organization (WHO) since October, especially BQ.1 and XBB (which, wrote the WHO, involves “a higher risk of reinfection than other circulating sub-lines of Omicron”).
Among all, the recombinant variant XBB (nicknamed “Gryphon”) is the one on which the eyes are fixed and which some scientists speculate could lead the Chinese wave. The subvariant, already present in Italy (36 sequences were reported in the latest ISS report) and in China, is the recombinant result of the sub-lineages BJ.1 and BM.1.1.1, but in turn has generated XBB.1.5 which is the real suspect because in New York it has increased by 140% in the last month and has recorded a higher rate of hospitalizations from Covid than that of the summer 2021 wave.
This subvariant, XBB.1.5, contains a mutation called F486P, which would allow it to escape antibodies better than its cousins and would also be more transmissible. In the regions of the North East of the USA it has become dominant in a short time, with a leap in infections in the last week.
The good news is that a study by Emory University, Stanford University and NIAID published on December 21 in the New England Journal of Medicine shows that bivalent RNA vaccines (also used in Italy as vaccine boosters) improve neutralization against the sub Omicron variants also including BA.2.75.2, BQ.1.1 and XBB.
December 29, 2022 (change December 30, 2022 | 11:35 am)
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