“The Great Game” was at the time the name for the rivalry between Great Britain and Russia in Afghanistan, and now it is the rivalry between America and China in the Middle East. The Chinese initiative to normalize relations between Tehran and Riyadh caught Israel at a time when public and political attention was directed to other matters – the debate on legal reform and the escalation of the conflict with the Palestinians – and America in a series of economic and social crises and in a maze of inconsistency and the lack of a super strategy in foreign policy, including in the Middle East , in addition to its involvement in the war in Ukraine.
Dramatic development: Iran and Saudi Arabia announced the renewal of relations between the countries
Whatever the practical results will be for Saudi Arabia, Tehran, Israel and the other countries in our region, it seems that China is the big beneficiary, both in the context of the global struggle between it and the United States and in terms of its direct interests in our region, which include a regular supply of oil and the prevention of disruptions of local wars and acts of terrorism, as well as as part of the importance of the region in its “Belt and Road” project and the control of maritime transport routes. China also sees its growing penetration in this part of the world as a counter to the shift of the American strategic axis to East Asia, an area that Beijing regards as both its front and back yards.
As far as Iran is concerned, the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia and perhaps also with other parties in the Arab world is an opening to strengthening its geopolitical position, without being forced to give up its nuclear and hegemonic goals in the Middle East, although this is not a full improvement from an international point of view or an improvement of its domestic problems. Another Iranian goal is to try and limit Israel’s growing influence in the region since the Abraham Accords, and this poses a challenge for both Israeli and American diplomacy.
The United States was caught off guard by the latest development in our region, as mentioned, and its possible consequences once again highlighted the problematic, and sometimes the contradictions, in its understanding of the reality in the Middle East. These deficiencies in understanding also stem from the different perceptions that are prevalent in America regarding its role as the world’s policeman and its mission, in its own eyes, to instill democratic and liberal values in the world, a goal that does not exactly correspond to the nature and essence of the Arab and Islamic countries.
The fact that the American media coverage of the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia moved relatively quickly to the inside pages of the newspapers and almost completely disappeared from the news broadcasts – also stems from the ambivalence and inconsistency in the American approach to the Middle East. These were expressed, for example, in President Obama’s intention to undermine stability in our region on a hegemonic division between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and his attempt to advance this goal through a nuclear agreement with Tehran – without considering the interests of the other players in the region.
The Trump administration, on the other hand, took a more single-minded line: since it also believed that America should divert its direct strategic effort to the Far East, it worked to strengthen the alliance with Saudi Arabia and Israel, canceled the nuclear agreement with Iran and tightened the sanctions regime against it, and backed the The Netanyahu government in promoting Israel’s geopolitical interests.
If the Biden administration tried to adopt two parallel tracks at the same time: to return to the nuclear agreement, and at the same time strengthen the security presence of the United States in the region despite the transfer of the main strategic emphasis to the Far East – while strengthening and supporting its traditional allies in the face of the Iranian threat. The large joint military exercise with Israel two months ago expressed this. However, the cooling of relations between Washington and Riyadh damaged this trend and allowed Beijing to pull the rug from under the feet of the United States.
And what are the consequences of all this for Israel? China, unlike Soviet Russia at the time, is not her enemy. On the contrary, it has economic and other interests in developing ties with it – and this is also an Israeli interest. It is clear that any easing of the economic and diplomatic pressure on Iran is not “good for the Jews”, and this also illustrates why the current internal situation in Israel may harm the promotion and exploitation of Israeli diplomacy. At the same time, the new situation between Saudi Arabia and Iran does not close the door on the prospects of relations between Jerusalem and Riyadh.
As evidence, at the same time in Beijing that the contacts between Iran and Saudi Arabia were taking place, the latter took care to leak to the “Wall Street Journal” that it was open, under certain conditions, to promote the normalization of relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia’s basic concerns about Iran’s trends have not dissipated and security ties with Israel, even if hidden for the time being, are part of its awareness of this.
Saudi Arabia, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, wants to expand as much as possible the circle of its international relations so that they include, in addition to the United States, the Gulf countries, the Arab world, and now China – Israel as well. It also strives to become, by 2030, a modern advanced economy that does not depend on oil, as well as a cultural and tourism center, and from this point of view as well, Israel’s military and technological capability is important to it.
As various experts believe, Saudi Arabia’s tendency is to create different international balances, of which the ties with Israel are also a part. Moreover, despite the cooling of relations with America, Saudi Arabia is not ready or able to give up the American protective wall and in its eyes Israel, America’s ally, has a role in ensuring this. This is also in line with Washington’s interest, and as the former American ambassador to Israel, Martin Indick, recently wrote: The United States sees Israel as an important factor in ensuring stability in the region.
For this reason, and because of the Iranian threat, which the United States does not take lightly either, a close meeting between the leaders of the United States and Israel to coordinate positions and moves is a common interest, and every effort must be made to ensure that the internal debates in Israel do not harm it. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s decision to delay the reform in order to reach an agreed progress, unfortunately, has not yet been responded to in a responsible and appropriate manner. Fixing this is now the order of the hour for leaders like Gadi Eisenkot and Benny Gantz.