Dhe increase in consumer prices in Germany is never ending. Above all, the price rally for petrol and diesel has apparently driven the inflation rate further upwards. As the Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden announced on Thursday after an initial estimate, consumer prices in Germany rose by 4.5 percent in October compared to the same month last year, after 4.1 percent in September.
That was the highest inflation rate in Germany for 28 years. In October 1993, a few years after reunification, the rate was 4.5 percent for the last time – but then fell again.
In particular, the prices for fuel and heating oil have risen unusually strongly recently. At times, drivers had to spend 1.90 euros and more for a liter of Super E10, at least on motorways. The average price is now 1.684 euros. At 1.572 euros per liter, diesel is even more expensive than ever in history.
Fuels cost 33.7 percent more
More precise information on the rise in consumer prices can be obtained from the figures published in more detail by the State Statistical Offices. In North Rhine-Westphalia, for example, fuel prices rose by 33.7 percent compared to the same month last year. That was apparently the decisive factor in the increase in the cost of living. In September the increase was at least 28.6 percent. Diesel was even 41.7 percent more expensive than a year ago; the lower tax share compared to super allows the price increase for crude oil to have a stronger impact.
Without heating oil and fuels, the inflation rate in North Rhine-Westphalia would have been 3 instead of 4.5 percent, emphasizes Holger Schmieding, chief economist at the Berenberg bank. At other prices, which had also made headlines in the past few months, the situation even calmed down somewhat. For food, the inflation rate in North Rhine-Westphalia fell slightly to 4.3 percent after 4.9 percent in September.
For package tours, the increase from 3.4 percent in September to 2.4 percent in October decreased at the end of the main travel season. The annual comparison for clothing prices has recently been quite volatile, as the pandemic in the previous year messed up the seasonal pattern of the usual summer sales, says Schmieding: “Here the annual comparison rate fell to 0.8 percent in October, after 2.6 percent in September. “
Few waiters, high prices
In contrast, citizens continue to enjoy the freedom to go out to eat almost without restriction. “With high demand, relatively high prices for food and a shortage of waiters, restaurant services in North Rhine-Westphalia were 4 percent more expensive in October than in the previous year, after an increase of 3.8 percent compared to the previous year in September,” says Schmieding.
The German Savings Banks and Giro Association published a survey that inflation is currently the biggest concern for many savers. 73 percent of people are critical of the inflation trend. Among the over 60-year-olds it is 85 percent, in the group of 14 to 29-year-olds 61 percent.
A further increase in the inflation rate is expected again at least for November. Commerzbank predicts that you will see a five before the decimal point this year. The Bundesbank has issued the assessment that the rate will at least continue to develop “in the direction of 5 percent” – but will fall again next year. In particular, raw material prices had recently shown ever higher rates of increase.
Import prices are rising for a long time
On Wednesday, the Federal Statistical Office reported that import prices in Germany in September were 17.7 percent higher than in the same month last year. The last time there was a higher price increase was in August 1981 in the context of the second oil price crisis. Energy imports in total increased in September by 107.1 percent compared to the previous year. The prices for natural gas rose by 170.6 percent, those for imported hard coal by 135.7 percent and those for crude oil by 75.5 percent.
In the next year, certain factors related to Corona, which are currently driving inflation up artificially, should be eliminated. Many economists and also the central banks then expect a certain decline in inflation rates. How far down that will go is controversial. The Bundesbank has expressed the assumption that the inflation rate in Germany will be more than 2 percent by the middle of next year.
But there are also signs that could suggest that inflation rates may even be higher over the long term. British professor Charles Goodhart, for example, has drawn attention to the fact that certain factors, such as globalization and demographics, which have kept inflation down so far, may be partially reversed.
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