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TEHERAN — FIn two days Iran votes for a new president, but you have to be passionate about politics to understand it. On the street there are more posters of General Soleimani killed by the Americans last year than of all seven aspiring presidents put together.Covid does not help, street demonstrations are prohibited to avoid contagion. The country has the record of deaths for the entire Middle East and just 6% of vaccinated. Yet the key to disinterest is in a joke that circulates everywhere: who said that Americans are better than us? It took them a month to find out that Biden had won. We know who will be president a month earlier. In Persian it is said Entekhabate mohandesishode. More or less it could be translated as “engineered elections”. Do not make up because (perhaps) it will not even be necessary to change the votes as (probably) happened in 2009. This is a planned, organized vote, designed to bring Ebrahim Raisi, a mullah (priest) head of the judiciary and candidate favored by the Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei as well as his dolphin to the succession.
At least three thousand executions
Raisi has a very bad international image. As a young “prosecutor” he was among the 4 members of the 1988 “Death Commission” who, without trial, decided to execute at least three thousand, but some estimate 30 thousand, political prisoners. In Iran, where obviously no one dreams of reproaching him for that massacre, it is no better. Raisi had already run for the 2017 presidential elections, building the image of the “anti-corruption judge”. Then he faced Hassan Rouhani, the current president supported by the entire “reformist” faction. In a TV debate, Rouhani silenced his rival saying that “the Iranians will not accept anyone who has hanged and incarcerated people for the past 38 years.” It ended with Rouhani at 57 and Raisi at 38%.
Opponent
His main opponent in this round, Abdolnaser Hemmati, also on TV, reproached him for his ease in judicial practice and the conflict of, how to define it, competences. “You are the head of the justice system and you are also running for president. Can you guarantee me that you won’t get me arrested if I say something against you? ‘ After the harsh repressions of 2009, 2018 and 2019 with Raisi always the protagonist on the side of the prosecution, the question was more than legitimate. Despite or perhaps because of all this, Raisi has on his side the support of the entire conservative group and above all of the Supreme Guide who, this time, has been able to maneuver to eliminate the potential competitors of his dolphin. Of the nearly 600 candidates, only seven were admitted by the Guardian Council. Such a blue painting had written in the name box: “Genius of the Lamp.” The majority, however, were disqualified on secret or bizarre criteria such as having children studying abroad. Among the non-admitted also champions of the conservative front, who could have divided the votes. The Supreme Leader was crystal clear: “Iran needs a man who fights corruption.”
The shadows on nuclear power
The only alternative to the turbaned magistrate is Hemmati, governor of the central bank, the defender of the currency, the Rial, but now a toast with coffee costs half a million. The Rial lost 40 percent in value in 2020 and 30 percent this year, impoverishing those with no foreign currency savings. How to be satisfied and rate it? The weight of the “maximum pressure” imposed by Donald Trump’s US through economic sanctions has crushed Rouhani’s current semi-reformist government and cast a shadow over Hemmati as well. In the three TV debates, the economist tried to get out of the corner. “If power ends with the conservatives – he said looking at Raisi – there will be no agreement on nuclear power and new sanctions will arrive”.
Sanctions
However, the speech is not convincing because the sanctions came with a “moderate” government and the nuclear dossier does not depend on the president, but directly on the Supreme Guide who gave the blessing to the resumption of talks. Another limitation of Hemmati is that the reformists do not support him. They even split over the invitation to go to vote or choose abstention. With Raisi president in the next four years all the offices of the country will be in the hands of the conservatives. They could give themselves the success of the nuclear negotiations and the consequent relaxation of sanctions. But also enjoy an oil price expected to double and the end of Covid.
Delfino
If all this really happened, popularity would be assured. It may even be the right time for a soft succession to the now 82-year-old Supreme Leader because Khamenei already became Leader when he was president in office. And who is considered Khamenei’s dolphin? Raisi, the future president.
June 15, 2021 (change June 15, 2021 | 22:24)
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