Main Points
- The US and Israel are continuing to strike at targets in Iran
- Three US fighter jets have been downed in Kuwait in a case of friendly fire
- US president Donald Trump says the US military campaign could last weeks
- Israel and Hizbullah in Lebanon have been exchanging fire
- Global oil prices jumped when markets opened on Monday
- Irish citizens in Gulf region are urged to register with Department of Foreign Affairs
- Dublin Airport estimates that between 5,000 and 6,000 passengers are stranded by the unrest
Key Reads
The number of US service personnel killed since Saturday has risen to four.
The fourth service member, who was seriously wounded during Iran’s initial attacks on a US base in Kuwait.
Three were initially killed in the attack and five were injured. One of the injured has now succumbed to his wounds.
US president Donald Trump said the bombing campaign against Iran could last for weeks and called on the nation’s leaders to capitulate, while the Islamic Republic’s security chief ruled out negotiations.
The conflict continued to reverberate across the Middle East on Monday, with blasts heard across Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, as states intercepted Iranian missiles launched in response to US-Israeli strikes.
Oil surged the most in four years and airlines suspended flights, causing major disruptions at some of the world’s busiest airports.
The US said three fighter jets crashed in Kuwait due to an apparent friendly fire incident. Israel expanded its campaign to Beirut after coming under attack from Hizbullah fighters in southern Lebanon, who are allied with Tehran.
Oil traded about 10 per cent higher near $80 a barrel as traders gauged the impact of the war on energy flows, with tanker traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz at a near halt.
QatarEnergy suspended production of liquefied natural gas due to attacks on its facilities, while operations were paused at Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery after a drone strike. Fuel prices soared across global markets. Stocks tumbled.
Trump called on Iran’s generals to hand power to the nation’s people and said he’s agreed to talk with new leadership after the weekend killing of supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to The Atlantic. Iran’s security chief Ali Larijani said Tehran will not negotiate with the US, responding to reports that he had reached out to American officials through Omani mediators.
The impact of the escalating conflict on the Strait of Hormuz heightened concerns that shipments from some of the world’s largest energy exporters could be disrupted. Investors reacted to the weekend events by shunning risky assets, although trading was volatile.
The escalating war in the Middle East is having a serious impact on the aviation and travel industries.
The United Arab Emirates and Qatar have made themselves world hubs for air traffic between Asia and Europe. Dubai, the world’s busiest international hub, and Doha in Qatar remain shut for a third day, leaving tens of thousands of passengers stranded as aviation faced its biggest challenge since the Covid pandemic.
Shares in TUI, Europe’s largest travel company, were down 8.5 per cent in late morning trade, while Lufthansa was down 6.5 per cent and Aer Lingus and British Airways-owner IAG down 4.8 per cent.
Dubai International Airport was hit by an Iranian drone over the weekend and the sight of terrified passengers evacuating its terminals will not help its carefully cultivated image as a hub and tourism destination.
Qatar has just announced that it is temporarily halting the production of liquified natural gas because of drone strikes by Iran.
QatarEnergy, the state-owned oil and gas enterprise, is responsible for nearly 20 per cent of global LNG exports.
The Qatari government blamed the closure on Iranian drone attacks on QatarEnergy’s operating facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City.
This could have major implications for the price of natural gas worldwide.
Iran is hitting sites that could cause more damage than just going for tankers.
Stocks fall, oil prices rise
Stocks tumbled and oil prices jumped as the eruption of a military conflict in Iran rattled global markets. Gold and the dollar rose in a rush for havens.
Brent crude traded near $79 a barrel after the conflict effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz – a vital artery off Iran’s coast that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and significant volumes of gas.
Safer assets drew strong demand as investors cut back on risk. Gold rose more than 2 per cent to nearly $5,400 (€4,600) an ounce. The dollar gained the most in nearly a month.
Three US jets in Kuwait downed by friendly fire
Dramatic footage of a US F-15 jet crashing has been confirmed as a friendly-fire incident.
US Central Command said three jets were hit by friendly fire.
All six crew ejected safely and have been recovered, it says.
Footage verified by several news outlets including CNN shows the apparent moment the fighter jet was downed near Kuwait City.
Iranian drones attacked the Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia on Monday morning.
The refinery is the oldest in Saudi Arabia and is operated by the country’s state oil company, Aramco.
The Saudi authorities said a small fire at the refinery was caused by falling debris and that two Iranian drones were shot down.
The country’s energy ministry has said “operational units at the refinery were shut down as a precautionary measure”, but there had been no impact on the “supply of petroleum products to local markets”.
While everybody is focused in Ireland on security preparations for our forthcoming EU presidency in July, Cyprus, the current holder, is already experiencing security issues in real time.
The US embassy in Cyprus has advised US citizens to take shelter with a possible drone threat to the Paphos region of the country.
Cyprus, like Ireland, is not a member of Nato though it is having a debate about whether or not to join.
That debate may well be accelerated given that it is now the target of Iranian drones because of the presence of a British Royal Air Force base on the island.
What is president Donald Trump’s endgame in Iran? Our Washington correspondent, Keith Duggan, gives his assessment in our In the News podcast.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has said the world must be prepared for the “fallout” of the war, Irish Times Europe correspondent Jack Power reports from Brussels.
Speaking at a brief press conference this morning, von der Leyen said Iran had to stop in its “indiscriminate” missile strikes across the Middle East.
“In the last hours, we have witnessed numerous attacks, including a drone attack targeting the British airbase in Cyprus,” she said.
The German politician, who leads the EU’s executive body, said she condemned in the “strongest terms” the “indiscriminate” attacks by Iran and its proxies on other countries in the Gulf region, which followed military strikes of the US and Israel.
The situation remained volatile, but there was “renewed hope for the oppressed people of Iran” to be able to “determine their own future”, the commission president said.
Oil and gas prices surged and global stocks fell on Monday as the widening conflict in the Middle East disrupted energy supplies from the region and threatened to hit the global economy.
In the first trading session since the US and Israel launched air strikes against Iran on Saturday, Brent crude, the international benchmark, soared as much as 13 per cent. European gas prices jumped 24 per cent.
Gold rose and global stocks fell, with the Stoxx Europe 600, Europe’s benchmark index, down 1.8 per cent, led by declines in airlines and hotel groups.
The Department of Foreign Affairs has issued updated advice to Irish citizens in the Middle East. The advice is here.
Physicist Dr Patricia Lewis has said there is no peaceful reason why Iran would want to enrich uranium up to 60 per cent.
The process of enrichment of uranium is necessary to create the energy needed for nuclear fuel or a nuclear bomb.
Through the process, pure uranium U238 is partially converted into an isotope U235. You only need to enrich it between 3 and 5 per cent for nuclear power, but a threshold of 60 per cent is worrying, she told RTÉ Radio 1’s Today with David McCullagh Show.
She estimated that Iran has up to 440kg of uranium enriched to 60 per cent, enough to make 10 bombs.
The last time that Iran had a purely peaceful nuclear programme was in 2003, she added.
Dublin Airport estimates that between 5,000 and 6,000 passengers are stranded by the unrest in the Middle East at present.
Twenty-three flights involving Dublin Airport were cancelled over the weekend.
All flights between the Middle East and Dublin Airport have been cancelled on Monday morning. There are between 12 and 14 flights a day on average to and from Dublin to the Middle East.
“You can expect more disruption over the next 48 hours too,” said Dublin Airport spokesman Graeme McQueen. He advised passengers to check in with their airlines.
The attacks by Iran on Cyprus come at a time when the country holds the EU presidency.
An Iranian drone struck the RAF Akrotiri base in Cyprus around midnight on Sunday. Damage was minimal and there were no casualties.
Nevertheless, it is evidence of the spread of the conflict beyond the Middle East.
RAF Akrotiri may be the subject of further Iranian attacks because of the decision by the British government to allow the US use its base on the island.
A meeting of European Affairs ministers that was due to be held on Tuesday in Cyprus has been cancelled.
Minister for European Affairs Thomas Byrne was due to attend the meeting.
What happens if Iran has more missiles and drones than interceptors to stop them?
This report in the Wall Street Journal suggests the United States, Israel and its allies in the Middle East are engaged in a race against time.
Can they destroy Iran’s missile-launching capability before their own stock of interceptors runs out?
Iran has huge stockpiles of drones and cheaper missiles. The vast majority are intercepted, but what if they keep coming?
The cost of interception for its enemies is much greater than the cost of launch for Iran.
Well-known political scientist Prof Robert Pape said in this blog post that the US-Israeli decapitation strategy has not worked.
He writes: “Iran is not a palace dictatorship resting on a handful of men. It is a state of roughly 92 million people, with governing institutions embedded across society.
“Security services and affiliated forces number in the hundreds of thousands to more than a million, depending on how one counts formal and paramilitary components. Roughly one in eight Iranians works for the state or in state-linked institutions.
“The regime’s authority is threaded through provincial administrations, economic networks, and local security structures. Removing several dozen senior leaders – even highly placed ones – touches only a small fraction of that governing apparatus. It does not dismantle the structure; it activates it.”
The conflict has spread to Lebanon with Israel and Hizbullah exchanging fire.
Israel has used the opportunity presented by the joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran to hit targets in Lebanon used by Hizbullah.
Hizbullah, a Shia militia, is one of Iran’s many proxies in the region.
The Lebanese health ministry says at least 31 people have been killed.
Hizbullah’s stronghold in the southern suburbs of Beirut was targeted.
In the south of the country, Israel has told people in more than 50 Lebanese villages to evacuate. Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Eyal Zamir said the “offensive campaign” is likely to last several days.
Hundreds more flights cancelled in worst travel chaos since Covid
Hundreds more flights were cancelled today, extending the turmoil in global air travel caused by the US-Israel war on Iran, with hundreds of thousands of passengers already stranded.
Leading airline stocks came under pressure after days of disruption, with Donald Trump indicating that the US military action could last another four weeks.
Major Middle Eastern airports, including Dubai – the world’s busiest international hub – closed for a third consecutive day amid the most acute aviation shock since the Covid-19 pandemic paralysed the industry.
Dublin Airport has warned that further disruption is possible over the coming days and has advised passengers to contact their airline.
A number of flights between Dubai and Dublin were cancelled on Sunday.
Death toll rises as strikes continue
Waves of Israeli and US air strikes hit Iran on Sunday, a day after the killing of supreme leader Ali Khamenei, writes Mark Weiss.
Israelis spent the day running to protected spaces as Iran responded with missile barrages, and sirens sounded every few hours across the country. Iran also targeted pro-American Gulf Arab states with missile and drone attacks.
Sunday’s attacks on Iran focused on headquarters and compounds of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij paramilitary force, the bodies primarily responsible for the recent brutal suppression of anti-regime protesters. A video image was released of a drone attack on a Basij motorcycle unit on the streets of Tehran.
Iran fires missiles at Israel and Gulf cities
Loud explosions were heard across the Gulf cities of Dubai, Doha and Manama as well as in Jerusalem this morning as Tehran pressed into a third day of strikes against Israel and Gulf neighbours in response to the US-Israeli attacks.
Agence France-Presse reported several loud blasts being heard in the Qatari and Bahraini capitals, as well as in the United Arab Emirates’ most populous city.
The Israeli air force said on X a short while ago that missiles had been launched from Iran towards Israel and defence systems were operating to intercept them.
The post also said it had directed the public via mobile phones in relevant areas to go to “protected spaces” and stay until further notice. – Guardian
