“Iran wants to project the image of a strong regional power”

2024-01-19 20:02:58

► How high can tensions between Iran and Pakistan go?

On Tuesday, January 16, Iran carried out an airstrike in Balochistan province, Pakistan. According to Pakistani authorities, two children were killed and several people were injured. Iran, for its part, affirmed that it had not “targeted only Iranian terrorists on Pakistani soil”, and that no Pakistani national had been targeted.

Pakistan responded this Thursday, January 18 with a “series of precision strikes”, killing nine people, mainly women and children according to the Iranian authorities. For decades, the two countries have faced insurgencies in the Balochistan region, shared by a common border of more than 900 km.

According to the geographer Bernard Hourcade, emeritus research director at the CNRS, “ There is no risk of escalation between Iran and Pakistan. The two countries are close despite the differences linked to the Baloch problem or the problem of Shiites in Pakistan.” LIran is predominantly populated by Shiite Muslims, unlike Sunni-dominated Pakistan.

« Iran and Pakistan are very cautious countries at the moment. They made it clear that the bombings were very targeted and aimed at opposition groups, and not at the Pakistani state or the Iranian state. »

► What is Iran’s objective through these strikes?

« L’Iranseeks to have security at home, this is a normal necessity in any State”, analyzes Bernard Hourcade. However, the country has been damaged several times by attacks in recent months. In December, eleven of its police officers were killed in an attack claimed by Jaish al-Adl in the town of Rask (Sistan-Baluchestan). This Sunni separatist group is classified “terrorist organization » by the United States and is on Iran’s blacklist.

“So-called “terrorist” groups are very numerous in both countries, but they are especially present in Pakistan,” explains Bernard Hourcade. “There are all the jihadist opposition movements close to the Baluchis and the Sunnis in particular.” These groups are suspected by Iran of being behind the attack in Kerman (southeast of Iran) which occurred on January 3, 2024 on the occasion of the anniversary ceremony of the general’s death Soleimani. This attack caused the death of nearly a hundred people. Iran’s airstrike would therefore be a warning to Pakistan to better control these “terrorist groups”. For its part, Pakistan has not “no intention of waging war on Iran, that’s obvious» assures the researcher. “They sent a missile back to a separatist base a few kilometers from the border, it was symbolic, give and take”.

► How can we be sure that Iran will not go too far?

“Iran wants to show that it is capable of managing problems in a serious and reasoned manner, by carrying out targeted attacks,” continues the expert. This strategy is the same “with the Houthis [au Yémen, NDLR]Hezbollah [libanais, NDLR] or Pakistan: Iran wants to project the image of a strong regional power, but also responsible.”

China’s influence in the region helps ease these tensions. The Asian giant is Iran’s largest trading partner, notably one of its largest buyers of oil, while also being an ally of Pakistan. “We must not forget that China is building the port of Gwadar, in the south of Pakistan,” underlines Bernard Hourcade. This strategically located port aims to be part of the China-Pakistan economic corridor, the crossroads of the new Silk Roads.. “Quietly, China is asserting its presence as a stabilizing sponsor, which no other country is capable of doing”concludes the researcher.