Israel Sends Warning to Iran Ahead of Airstrikes Amid Rising Tensions
October 7, 2023
Israel sent a message to Iran on Friday ahead of its retaliatory airstrikes, warning the Iranians not to respond, three sources with knowledge of the issue told Axios.
Why It Matters
The Israeli message was an attempt to limit the ongoing exchange of attacks between Israel and Iran and prevent a wider escalation, the sources said.
Driving the News
U.S. and Israeli officials reported that three waves of airstrikes took place on Saturday morning local time.
- The first wave targeted Iran’s air defense system, while the second and third waves focused on missile and drone bases and weapons production sites.
- Iran claimed it successfully defended against the Israeli attack and reported only “limited damage” to military targets.
- Israeli officials stated the airstrikes were in retaliation for Iran’s massive ballistic missile attack on October 1.
Behind the Scenes
The Israeli message was conveyed to the Iranians through several third parties, sources indicated.
- “The Israelis made it clear to the Iranians in advance what they are going to attack in general and what they are not going to attack,” one source told Axios.
- Two other sources mentioned that Israel warned Iran not to respond to the attack, emphasizing that any retaliation would provoke a more significant Israeli response, particularly if there were civilian casualties.
- The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office did not respond to requests for comment.
Iran has expressed that it does not seek a full-blown war with Israel but will retaliate if attacked.
- On Saturday, IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari stated that if Iran escalates in response to the Israeli strikes, Israel would be compelled to retaliate.
- A U.S. official indicated that while the U.S. did not participate in the Israeli operation, it is prepared to defend Israel should Iran retaliate.
- “This should be the end of the direct military exchange between Israel and Iran,” the official added. “If Iran attacks Israel again, there will be consequences. We communicated that directly and indirectly to Iran.”
What They’re Saying
One channel for communicating messages to Iran before the Israeli strike involved Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldcamp.
- “I spoke with the Iranian Foreign Minister about war and the heightened tensions in the region. Regarding the latter, I urged for restraint. All parties must work to prevent further escalation,” Veldcamp wrote on X several hours before the Israeli attack.
What to Watch
U.S. officials anticipate that Iran will respond to the Israeli attack in the coming days, but in a limited way that would allow Israel to halt the tit-for-tat cycle.
- “It is our aim to accelerate diplomacy and de-escalate tensions in the Middle East region. We urge Iran to cease its attacks on Israel so that this cycle of fighting can end without further escalation,” National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett stated.