Israel’s Attack Cripples Key Iranian Missile Base
Satellite imagery analyzed by The Associated Press reveals that a recent Israeli airstrike significantly damaged a base in Shahroud, Iran, heavily impacting the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard’s crucial ballistic missile and space programs. This attack, which occurred early Saturday, has raised new questions about the extent of Israel’s operation, particularly as the targeted area in Semnan province had previously been unacknowledged by Tehran.
Iran, which has thus far only identified Israeli attacks in Ilam, Khuzestan, and Tehran provinces, has remained silent regarding any potential damage sustained by the Revolutionary Guard, a powerful force operating within Iran’s theocracy.
This attack notably threatens to further restrict the Guard’s ability to manufacture the solid-fuel ballistic missiles it relies upon as a deterrent against Israel.
Iran cannot acquire advanced Western weapons readily available to Israel and its Gulf Arab neighbors, making its own arsenal of ballistic missiles vital to its defense strategy.
Images captured earlier by the AP of two military facilities near Tehran, also targeted by Israel, show widespread destruction affecting structures critical to Iran’s ballistic missile production, further constricting its program.
"While the full extent remains uncertain, it’s clear the attacks have had a considerable impact," stated Fabian Hinz, a missile expert and research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He added, "We’ve seen enough evidence to confirm significant damage has been inflicted."
Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Israel, while declining to answer directly, previously acknowledged targeting "missile manufacturing facilities."
Shahroud Base: A Vital Missile Hub Heavily Impacted
High-resolution satellite photos obtained from Planet Labs PBC by the AP and subsequently analyzed, reveal extensive damage at the Revolutionary Guard’s Shahroud Space Center in Semnan province, located approximately 230 miles northeast of Tehran.
The imagery shows a significant central building at the Shahroud Space Center completely destroyed, with its skeletal frame casting a shadow in the Tuesday morning image. Vehicles were congregated around the site, presumably officials assessing the damage, accompanied by an unusually high number of cars parked near the main gate.
Three smaller buildings south of the central structure also appear damaged, while several other buildings constructed in recent months remain seemingly untouched. To the northeast, another hangar also seems to have sustained damage.
Despite Iran’s silence regarding any attack on Shahroud, the damage evident across multiple structures strongly suggests the Israeli operation involved precise strikes on the base. Low-resolution images taken since the attack revealing new damage unseen previously solidify Israeli missile strikes as the most likely culprit.
"While we cannot completely rule out other possibilities, the evidence overwhelmingly points toward Israeli involvement," stated Hinz.
Given the presence of earthen berms surrounding the large, destroyed building, experts believe it housed high explosives. Hinz, who has closely studied this site, suggests the building likely housed facilities for mixing and casting solid propellants.
Large crates visible near the structure are most likely missile motor casings, their size indicating compatibility with Iran’s Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile and the Fattah 1, a missile capable of reaching Mach 15, both of which have been deployed by Iran against Israel during the Israel-Hamas war and Lebanon’s subsequent invasion.
The Shahroud strike, in conjunction with other attacks across Iran, has likely increased pressure on the Iranian theocracy, forcing it to assess the damage to its primary weapon arsenal while attempting to downplay the severity of the attacks.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, however, claimed during a meeting with foreign diplomats in Tehran on Tuesday that damage from the attacks was minimal, attributing it to the “preparedness and vigilance of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s armed forces and the timely response from the country’s air defense." He further asserted that measures were already underway to restore damaged equipment to operational status.
US Concerned by Guard’s Space Program
Adjacent to the destroyed buildings is a concrete launch pad utilized by the Revolutionary Guard, which has successfully launched numerous satellites using mobile launchers. The Guard’s clandestine space program only came to light in 2020.
U.S. intelligence agencies view the Guard’s space program with concern, believing its continued development of satellite launch vehicles could shorten the timeline for Iran to acquire intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which utilize similar technology.
ICBMs are capable of delivering nuclear weapons, a prospect that raises alarm bells given Iran’s recent advancements in uranium enrichment, bringing its stockpile close to weapons-grade levels following the collapse of its nuclear deal with world powers.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned that Iran possesses enough enriched uranium to construct “several” nuclear weapons should it choose to.
Iran consistently maintains it has no intention of developing nuclear weapons and insists its space program, like its nuclear activities, serves purely civilian purposes. However, US intelligence agencies and the IAEA have confirmed Iran possessed an organized military nuclear program until 2003.
One of the two military bases near Tehran targeted by Israel, Parchin, housed a building connected to this program, which was destroyed during the attack.
Hinz emphasizes the parallel between Iran’s nuclear program and its space program: “ You don’t build the entire system directly; you develop the underlying technology under the guise of a civilian program.” Iran could then decide to weaponize this technology or leverage its knowledge as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the West regarding sanctions.
For now, satellite images indicate Iran is still assessing the consequences of Israel’s attacks.
Two British experts at the Royal United Services Institute issued an analysis on Monday suggesting that the attacks inflicted significant damage on Iranian air defenses and missile launch facilities, aiming to demonstrate to Iran their vulnerability to further strikes should they retaliate.