South Korea’s Local Elections: A Crucial Test for the Lee Administration
The upcoming June 3rd local elections in South Korea are shaping up to be a pivotal moment, serving as the first major evaluation of President Lee Jae-myung’s administration and a key battleground for national power. Both the ruling and opposition parties are actively preparing their strategies, with intense focus on key mayoral races in Seoul and Busan.
Strategic Planning Underway
The Democratic Party and the People’s Power party have established dedicated teams to spearhead their election efforts. Secretary-General Cho Seung-rae of the Democratic Party and 5th Legislator Na Kyung-won of the People’s Power are leading the charge, focusing on developing election strategies and establishing nomination standards. The 9th National Simultaneous Local Election will determine the leadership of 17 cities and provinces nationwide, as well as members of the National Assembly.
Seoul Mayoral Race: A High-Stakes Contest
The Seoul mayoral election is garnering significant attention, with the ruling party aiming to prevent incumbent Oh Se-hoon from securing a third consecutive term. Several potential candidates have emerged within the People’s Power, including Park Hong-geun, Seo Young-kyo, Park Ju-min, Jeon Hyun-hee, Hong Ik-pyo, and Park Yong-jin. These contenders are actively scrutinizing the mayor’s key initiatives, with some even calling for a special investigation into the “Myung Tae-kyun Gate” controversy.
However, the People’s Power faces a challenge in identifying a candidate with broad appeal, particularly given Seoul’s demographic trends and concerns surrounding aging voters and real estate issues. Names like Kim Min-seok, Sang-ho Woo, and calls for external recruitment have surfaced as potential solutions. In the 2022 presidential election, President Lee secured 47.13% of the vote in Seoul, but this was fragmented across multiple candidates, including Kim Moon-soo (41.55%) and Lee Jun-seok (9.94%). Analysts predict a consolidation of conservative votes in the upcoming local election.
The Democratic Party acknowledges the difficulty of challenging Mayor Oh, with one party leader stating that “the end-of-war frame in the Seoul mayoral election will be limited.” Concerns also exist within the party regarding the potential burden of aligning with President Lee’s strong political faction in securing support from the middle class. However, leadership remains optimistic, believing a presidential approval rating maintained at 60% could provide a significant advantage. Another leader noted, “Mayor Oh doesn’t have the image of a novel figure, the presidential candidate.”
Busan and Yeongnam Region: Key Battlegrounds
The People’s Power is also heavily focused on maintaining its stronghold in the Yeongnam region, where it currently holds all regional leadership positions. Democratic Secretary-General Cho Seung-rae has vowed a fierce campaign in the area. The party believes President Lee garnered nearly 40% of the vote in Busan and Gyeongnam (PK) during the last presidential election.
The Busan mayoral election is particularly crucial, with President Lee and party leaders recently emphasizing pledges related to Busan’s development. Potential candidates for the People’s Power include the Minister of Maritime Affairs, Lee Jae-sung, and former lawmakers Choi In-ho and Park Jae-ho.
In the Daegu and Gyeongbuk (TK) areas, where President Lee’s support remains at 20%, identifying viable candidates to challenge the People’s Power is proving difficult. Kim Bu-gyeom, a former Prime Minister, has been mentioned as a potential candidate for Daegu Mayor. A ruling party leader observed that “TK tends to be more gathered in crisis, so it will not be simple.” Lim Mi-ae, chairman of the Gyeongbuk Provincial Party, highlighted the region’s growing support base, stating, “In the past, there were not abundant human grass, but it was three times larger in the region (compared to 20 years ago), and the foundation of support was thicker.”
Chungcheong Province: A Critical Swing Region
Chungcheong Province, historically a key swing region, is also under close scrutiny. The People’s Power currently holds the leadership positions in Chungnam, Chungbuk, and Daejeon. The party is optimistic, citing President Lee’s 4-8 percentage point advantage in the region during the last presidential election. The Chungnam Governor’s election is attracting particular attention following the resignation of Moon Jin-seok, the leader of the Democratic Party, as chairman of the Chungnam Provincial Party. Potential candidates include Park Soo-hyun, Bok-gi, and former Chungnam officials.
Gyeonggi and Incheon: Competitive Races Ahead
The Gyeonggi Governor race is expected to be highly competitive, with a range of potential candidates emerging from the People’s Power, including Kim Dong-yeon, Chu Mi-ae, Kim Byung-ju, Lee Eon-ju, Han Joon-ho, Kwon Chil-seung, Kim Yong-min, and Yeom Tae-young. The Incheon Gyeyang Eul district is also a key focus, attracting significant attention from both parties. The People’s Power is considering Kim Nam-joon, a spokesman who transitioned to a role as first deputy chief of the president’s office, and even the chairman of the Fatherland Innovation Party. The Democratic Party is looking to Han Dong-hoon and Kim Min-soo as potential contenders.
A Defining Election for the Lee Administration
This local election represents the first major test for the Lee Jae-myung administration, determining whether the government can solidify its national power midway through its term. As one political analyst, Yoon Tae-gon, stated, “The ruling party is more important than doing well than doing well. Currently, the legislative process is rough.”
The 2022 local elections saw the People’s Power secure 12 of the 17 regional groups, excluding Gyeonggi, Jeonbuk, Jeonnam, Jeju, and Gwangju. The Democratic Party, in contrast, won 14 regional groups in the 2018 local elections, excluding Daegu, Gyeongbuk, and Jeju. The outcome of the upcoming elections will undoubtedly reshape the political landscape of South Korea.
