2024-03-24 10:57:22
Two years before the next municipal election, an Ispos-La Tribune Sunday poll places Rachida Dati in a position of strength. Far behind the new Minister of Culture, Anne Hidalgo finds herself in a delicate situation, after ten years spent at City Hall.
Obviously so far from this election, there are still many questions about the candidates, possible alliances or not and the evolution of voting intentions. This is why Ispos tested several hypotheses. Despite everything, the plurality of these scenarios makes it possible to identify the lines of strength and weakness of each.
By becoming Minister of Culture and moving away from the Republican camp, Rachida Dati seems to have made the right move. In all cases, she would come out on top by a large margin. “The Renaissance electorate supports it and that of LR has not abandoned it,” explains Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at Ipsos in the Tribune-Dimanche.
If Rachida Dati managed to lead a list supported by Renaissance, MoDem, Horizons and Les Républicains, she would obtain 38%. She almost achieves the total scores obtained by her lists (21.9%) and those of the macronist Agnès Buzyn (18%) during the 2020 municipal elections. If she was in competition with an LR list led by the senator and former mayor of 16th arrondissement, Francis Szpiner, one in two Republican voters would still vote for her.
“There is play”
“With 40% good opinions, it has a high base,” explains Mathieu Gallard. She is seen as a legitimate candidate, even one who can generate some enthusiasm.”
Conversely, the fall of Anne Hidalgo is spectacular. In 2020, the mayor of Paris gathered nearly 30% of the votes. In this poll, according to the hypotheses, his score would only be 12 to 14%. Even Emmanuel Grégoire, her first deputy who is very little known, would do better than her. But above all, a list led by the ecologist Yannick Jadot would come well ahead of her by being credited with 17 to 18%.
Note however, the accumulation of votes with the addition of the LFI, Ecologists, PS and PC lists remains approximately the same as in 2020. “It is the unpopularity of Anne Hidalgo which, in fact, disturbs the electorate from the left. There is play,” adds Mathieu Gallard. 40% of Parisians surveyed say they are very unhappy with Anne Hidalgo after ten years at the head of Paris.
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