WP “Phone call with Biden reveals water level control”
U.S. government “requests expansion of war due to concerns about rising oil prices”
Lee lowers the level and the U.S. analyzes THAAD futures
This bombards Gaza and Lebanon day after day.
The Washington Post (WP) and others reported on the 14th that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to retaliate against Iran by ‘attacking Iranian military and intelligence facilities’ in a phone call with US President Joe Biden on the 9th. Initially, some mentioned striking Iranian oil or nuclear-related facilities, but some analysts say that Israel lowered the level of retaliation due to strong dissuasion from President Biden, who was concerned about rising international oil prices and an escalation of war in the Middle East ahead of the US presidential election on November 5. Earlier on the 1st, Iran launched an airstrike on the Israeli mainland with ballistic missiles, and Prime Minister Netanyahu has always predicted ‘strong retaliation’.
A Biden administration official disclosed this decision, saying, “The White House requested this to prevent an escalation of war in the Middle East and avoid a potential increase in oil prices.” The Biden administration’s announcement on the 13th that it would additionally deploy THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) to Israel and dispatch about 100 U.S. troops to operate it also prompted Prime Minister Netanyahu to “attack Iranian nuclear and oil facilities.” WP reported that this was done after saying, “I will not do it.” This means that Israel lowered the level of retaliation against Iran, and as compensation, the United States deployed THAAD in Israel for the second time following 2019.
However, opinions are divided even within Israel regarding the timing of Israel’s retaliation. Both the Biden administration and Israel are struggling to create the perception that this issue will not affect the US presidential election. However, an Israeli source told WP that if Israel does not take any action, it could send a signal to Iran that “Israel has become weak,” and that “retaliation will occur before the U.S. presidential election.”
There is also the possibility that Prime Minister Netanyahu will reverse what he said with President Biden. Frank Lowenstein, who served as special envoy to the Middle East during the former Barack Obama administration, told the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), “Prime Minister Netanyahu said what the president wanted to hear in front of President Biden, but then faced backlash from the Israeli extreme right (who are his core supporters). “It’s not the first time I’ve changed my words because I was pushed,” he said.
Israel is pouring heavy bombs every day on the Gaza Strip, which is ruled by the Palestinian armed group Hamas, and on Lebanon, which is engaged in a ground war with the Lebanese pro-Iranian armed group Hezbollah. According to the New York Times (NYT), on the 14th, Israel conducted an airstrike on a hospital site in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza, which had been used as a refugee camp and shelter after the outbreak of war with Hamas in October last year, killing at least four people. Gaza health authorities said at least 20 people were killed in an airstrike on a school housing refugees in nearby Nusseyrat. It was reported that at least 21 people were killed in an Israeli airstrike in the village of Aitu in northern Lebanon.
Reporter Lee Ki-wook 71wook@donga.com
Reporter Lee Ji-yoon asap@donga.com