Nikki Haley, Donald Trump’s only serious opponent in the primary elections to choose the Republican Party candidate for the next presidential election in the United States, announced the end of her electoral campaign this Wednesday.
Haley, a 52-year-old former governor of South Carolina and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, has won just two ballots since the Republican primary calendar began on January 15.
In both cases — in Washington DC, on Sunday, and in Vermont, on Tuesday —, the candidate benefited from a Republican electorate that was less conservative and less loyal to Trump than in other areas of the country, which gave her, from the outset, , good chances of winning.
Still, on Tuesday, Haley was clearly defeated in 14 states, including Massachusetts, where the candidate was expected to pull off an upset. In the end, the former US President won Massachusetts with 23 points more than Haley.
“It’s now up to Donald Trump to win the votes of voters in our party who didn’t support him, and I hope he can do that,” Haley said, in a statement from Charleston, South Carolina, that fell short of a formal declaration of support for Trump. “It’s his choice,” said the Republican.
Considerable support
In Tuesday’s elections — a “super Tuesday”, with votes in 15 North American states on the same day — Haley beat Trump in Vermont with 50% of the votes, against 46% for the former US President.
In the remaining votes, the Republican obtained between 12% in Alaska and 41% in Utah, with several results in the 20% and 30% range — considerable support for the undisputed leader of the Republican Party and which could compromise Trump’s desire to return to the White House in the November election.
It is not possible at this point to know how many of the 20% to 30% of Republicans and independents who voted for Haley in several primary elections are part of a staunchly anti-Trump electorate; how many will vote for Trump in November, as they do not accept the possibility of voting for the likely Democratic Party candidate, Joe Biden; how many will vote for Biden; and how many will choose to abstain in the general election.
What is certain is that the former US President needs the vast majority of votes won by Haley during the primaries to defeat Biden in November.
Guaranteed appointment
With Haley’s departure, Trump is left alone in the race to be nominated as the Republican Party’s candidate, which will happen for the third time in a row, after his triumphs in the 2016 and 2020 Republican primaries.
When there are still a few dozen delegates left to be distributed that were at stake on “Super Tuesday”, the former US President already has 995 — 220 less than those needed to be considered the presumptive nominee of his party.
According to the primary calendar, Trump will be able to win the necessary 1215 delegates next Tuesday, after votes in Georgia, Mississippi, the state of Washington and Hawaii, where 161 delegates are at stake.
If this does not happen, it is certain that the nomination will be assured on March 19, the day on which Florida and Ohio, among other states, hold their primaries.
After reaching the magic number of 1215, Trump will continue to add delegates until the end of the primary elections, at the beginning of the summer. After that, the only thing missing is the official seal of the nomination, which will happen at the National Convention of the Republican Party , in mid-July.
Biden almost certain
On the Democratic Party side, Biden was also very close to securing the number of delegates that will allow him to present himself as his party’s presumptive nominee for the November presidential election.
On “Super Tuesday”, the President of the USA — who, unlike Trump, never had any major opposition in the primaries — won in all the states that went to vote.
The only defeat of the day — and the first since the start of the primaries — occurred in American Samoa, a territory administered by the US and which also participates in choosing candidates for the White House. In this vote, Biden trailed Jason Palmer, an unknown businessman from Maryland.