Early hospital data suggest that the variant spreads much faster than Delta, but that it causes mild symptoms: despite the huge increase in cases, deaths have not risen in South Africa. The high contagiousness, with so many infections in a short time, could still have an important impact on health systems
The whole world is waiting to understand if the variant Omicron cause more serious disease and circumvent the protection of currently marketed vaccines.
The Medical Research Council of South Africa released an initial report on Saturday on the situation of several hospitals in the province of Gauteng, where Omicron was first sequenced. The results – it should be emphasized, still not exhaustive – suggest that the symptoms appear to be less severe than in other forms of the virus.
The rate of diffusion and the incubation period
The data is still very preliminary and is based on a photograph dated 2 December concerning 42 patients hospitalized and on an analysis of others 166 patients hospitalized between 14 and 29 November 2021 in the hospital complexes of Steve Biko and Tshwane District in Pretoria. The researchers point out that there is no confirmation that all cases are Omicron since no genetic analysis was performed after a “negative S” swab, characteristic of the new variant, however the NICD (The National Institute for Communicable Diseases in South Africa) confirmed that in the investigated district, Guateng, 74% of the samples sequenced in the last three weeks of November were Omicron.
Health officials in South Africa claim that the new variant is already dominant: a month ago the country had fewer than 300 new cases a day, today we are at 16,000.
25% of the swabs carried out were positive, two weeks the positivity rate was 2%.
The rapid spread of Omicron (which appears to have an Rt almost 2.5 times higher than Delta), could also be due to a shorter incubation period, but the hypothesis will have to be confirmed by future studies on transmission chains, as well as its greater ability to bypass the immune defenses induced by infection or vaccine.
I sintomi
The report shows that most of the patients hospitalized he did not need supplemental oxygen, few developed Covid pneumonia or required major care, even fewer were admitted to intensive care.
Experts from around the world, however, urge you to read these reports with caution because it will still take time to focus on Omicron’s true profile and it should not be forgotten that a younger population lives in South Africa than the European one, therefore less susceptible to a more serious Covid disease. Also as previous waves teach the impact of the coronavirus is not always felt immediately, with hospitalizations and deaths often delayed compared to the initial outbreaks. However, the first report seems encouraging.
Hospitalizations for other medical reasons
The report points out how most of the patients were actually hospitalized for other medical, surgical, or obstetric reasons and their positivity has been tested because, just as happens in Italy, every patient who needs to be hospitalized is subjected to a swab.
Many were asymptomatic.
Of the 42 in the first analysis, only nine were treated for the virus and needed oxygen: eight were unvaccinated, one was a child. Only one of the 42 was admitted to the ICU, which is in line with what was reported by the NICD which shows how in the previous two weeks, despite the increase in infections, only 106 patients had been hospitalized in intensive care.
One-third shorter hospital stay
From the analysis of all 166 coronavirus patients in the Biko-Tshwane complex between 14 and 29 November it emerged that the mean length of hospital stay was 2.8 days (less than 7% deaths), much shorter than 8.5 average days recorded over the last 18 months (with deaths at 17%).
Short hospital stays also mean less stress for hospitals.
Eighty percent of 166 patients were under the age of 50, and similar figures were reported across Gauteng, in stark contrast to the previous categories of inpatient Covid patients, which were usually older. This could stem from the fact that South Africa has a relatively high vaccination rate in people over 50 and a low rate in young people, although it is currently unclear whether existing vaccines offer strong protection against Omicron.
Deaths have not increased
The data of mild illness that has been seen in Pretoria is reinforced by the numbers that concern the entire province of Guateng. 8% of Covid positive patients are being treated in intensive care, in decrease compared to 23% recorded during the Delta wave. Only 2% use fans, down from 11%.
Although the total number of Covid-positive patients in Guateng hospitals is approaching the level reached during the Delta wave, the researchers say that even in this case, a large proportion of these patients are hospitalized for other reasons.
And another reassuring fact: the number of Covid patients in intensive care is a quarter of what it was three weeks after the Delta outbreak. So far, despite the huge increase in cases, deaths have not increased in South Africa.
Sensations
“The relatively low number of hospitalizations for Covid-19 pneumonia in the general, intensive care and sub-intensive care wards constitutes a very different picture compared to the start of previous waves,” wrote Fwanted Abdullah
, director of the South African Medical Research Council and infectious disease doctor at Steve Biko hospital.
The doctor also told the Financial Times: “Entering a Covid ward in the last 18 months you could hear the hiss of oxygen coming out of the sockets on the wall, you could hear the beeps of the ventilators, but now the vast majority of patients are as if was hospitalized in another ward ». Even the immunologist Anthony Fauci claimed that The first data on Omicron’s severity seem encouraging: «It is almost certain – he said – that Omicron will not cause more serious cases of Covid-19 than the Delta variant. We will still have to wait another two weeks at least to know for sure if Omicron will really prove less dangerous ».
The high number of infections can translate into more hospitalizations
Many scientists predict a high number of infections and re-infections with Omicron, but only a small percentage of cases will need hospital treatment. The high contagiousness of Omicron can however represent a problem: even if the variant appears less virulent, its contagiousness is concerned. Guateng province is seeing an increase in the hospitalization rate of Covid patients five times higher than in the most critical period of the Delta wave.
In fact, Omicron transmits more efficiently it infects more people in a short amount of time and statistically more people will need hospital treatment.
The forecast: Omicron dominant in the UK within a month
Concerns that the sharp increase in cases linked toOmicron’s apparent ability to evade immune protection gained from a previous infection or vaccines it could still put a strain on hospitals, just like it did with Delta, which is perhaps why the UK is on high alert for the variant. Francois Balloux, professor of computational systems biology and director of the UCL Genetics Institute explained: “Omicron represents only a very small fraction of Covid-19 cases in the UK because Delta still accounts for 99% of infections. But it is likely that the situation will change in the future with Omicron which will double every three days. If this diffusion rate were to be maintained it is to be expected that Omicron becomes the most popular variant in the UK within a month“. Although early anecdotal evidence suggests Omicron may be less virulent than Delta Balloux, it warns: ‘If Omicron infections were associated with fewer hospitalizations and deaths, a small fraction of severe outcomes on a very large number of infections could still cause intense pressure on health systems. Furthermore, if it were confirmed that Omicron causes less severe symptoms on average than the Delta, its spread could be underestimated, as people infected with Omicron may be less likely to come forward to undergo a swab. ‘
The spread of Omicron
The Omicron variant spread rapidly and has been so far detected in more than 30 countries on six continents. Also in Europe, as in South Africa, the first reports emerge that the symptoms caused by Omicron are rather mild even if the variant appears more contagious. In Great Britain, the government said Tuesday that the number of Omicron cases had risen to 437, three times the figure on Friday. There Denmark reported 261 cases (not yet all confirmed), four times higher than on Friday (a high school student party would have been a super loud event). THE
two countries have a very high rate of genomic sequencing: other nations may also have a high presence of Omicron, but it is simply not detected. Currently in Italy there are 11 confirmed sequences and other suspects have been identified in Calabria, Campania, Sardinia, Veneto and in the autonomous province of Bolzano. According to the latest update of the ECDC, European Center for Disease Control, another 62 cases of the Omicron variant were detected in the EU countries and the European Economic Area, bringing the total to 274 confirmed cases in 19 countries. On the basis of mathematical models conducted by the ECDC there are the premises why Omicron may cause over half of all SARS CoV-2 infections within the next few months
.
December 7, 2021 (change December 7, 2021 | 20:03)
© Time.News