STANFORD (California) «Liberal democracy has been under severe stress for a decade and the pandemic which, like all crises, has unforeseen consequences, further reduces the space for freedom. The terrorist attack of September 11, 2001 prompted the United States to fight two wars that no one wanted, while the financial crash of 2008 fueled populism and anti-establishment movements. This time the coronavirus was used by governments to expand their executive authority, effectively reducing the freedom of citizens in times of health emergency. A loss that will not be only momentary: many leaders who do not want to give up these new powers ».
I meet Francis Fukuyama, the Stanford historian, author of the famous and discussed The end of the story and many other essays in an outdoor bar outside the Silicon Valley university, still off limits to visitors. His former tranchant judgments have been replaced by more calm reflections and also by some self-deprecating reticence. He is convinced that Biden’s success is not a flash in the pan, but he does not lose his balance in judgments on Europe: «In June of last year I was convinced that a new cycle was opening, still dominated by the influence of Angela Merkel. Wrong forecast, better not to make others ».
What about the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians?
“I’ve been studying it for 40 years: since I worked at the State Department during the Reagan presidency. I have seen those relations deteriorate more and more with Israel which, by multiplying the settlements in the Occupied Territories, has made a two-state solution virtually impossible. With the acceleration of the last 4 years, which took place with Trump’s blessing, Israel has deprived itself of an option of political agreement to stem the crisis. Only the use of force remained: I see no way out ».
Only negative consequences from the pandemic?
“No, something good can come of it too. The underestimation of the virus and the poor management of the health emergency has exposed the paucity of some populist and sovereign leaders who seemed invincible: it applies to the United States, Brazil, India and even Mexico. Without Covid, Trump would have won the elections. Instead, now Biden is starting a new cycle, made up of a return to welfare and public investments in infrastructure and the environment. Here: the other major effect of the pandemic is the relaunch of the role of the state. As an investor and as a regulator ».
It could be a short-term turning point: many are expecting a Republican revival in the mid-term elections, in a year and a half.
«I don’t think so but here we have to make a distinction: on the economic level the pendulum has certainly changed direction. In the post-war period we had a strong role of the state, between investments and social protection. Then with Reagan, since 1980, the pendulum has moved in the opposite direction: towards liberal, Darwinian capitalism. We are now back to state interventionism and attention to welfare. The role of Biden pressed by the Democratic left is important, but the pendulum has also changed direction for the Republicans: Trump with his populism had already imposed the turn. The new president has a highway in front of him, even if Congress will not fully approve his plan, which foresees a total expenditure of 6 trillion. Biden is, however, committing a serious mistake ».
Which?
“Spending policies are popular and are now accepted even on the right, but he should rebalance them by reassuring conservatives on other grounds: not giving space to the so-called woke culture of the radical left and the pressure to cut funds for the police or to cancel controversial historical legacies. My friends who vote Republican do not like Trump but they fear these ideological drifts of the left ».
You have just written an essay on the rise of Erdogan’s Turkey, which became a regional power thanks to drone technology. Where does this interest of yours come from?
“In my free time I enjoy the hobby of drones and since I started using them ten years ago, I realized that this technology, then in the hands of the United States and Israel, would sooner or later also be used by others. Countries, changing the balance of power and the very nature of land conflicts. Turkey, which obtained drone technology from Israel and then developed its own industry, today, using inexpensive means and without risking the lives of pilots, has intervened effectively in various conflicts. In Idlib, Syria, he blocked the offensive of Assad’s troops supported by Russia. In Libya, he bombed the air base of General Haftar, an ally of the Emirates. In Somalia it filled the void left by the lesser commitment of the US. And in September Erdogan intervened in the conflict for Nagorno Karabakh alongside Azerbaijan, against Armenia. Turkish drones destroyed 200 tanks, 90 armored cars and 182 pieces of artillery ».
He studied it thoroughly! Conclusions that go beyond the role of Turkey?
»This technology is forcing the staffs to rethink land conflicts, land occupation, the use of troops and armored vehicles. We will see something similar to what happened in the seas when the arrival of aircraft carriers made the battleships obsolete and vulnerable, until then the heart of every fleet. And Turkey itself is selling its drones to Ukraine which will use them to repel the attacks of the Russian tanks ».
May 19, 2021 (change May 19, 2021 | 10:03 pm)
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