The theory of realism in international relations assumes that disorder is worse than injustice. When basic agreements are broken in a world of permanent tensions, the established order is disrupted. One of the victims of this debacle is peace, which is never the priority objective of States but the international order that makes it possible.
These ideas, which are those of Kissinger, Morgenthau and before Machiavelli among other thinkers, help to understand the challenge that the war in Ukraine constitutes and the deep meaning that is under discussion on that front.
Just as Vladimir Putin kicked the international order even with the limitations of the insufficient preparation of his armies and even poorly informed about their capabilities, the conflict has become a a test for the west about the preservation in its own key of those balances.
Therefore, there are no fallback alternatives. for neither side. That is why the war is only destined to worsen. It is what is coming.
Unrelated to the date of the first year of the invasion, which is February 24, the Kremlin is preparing a major military operation with which he will try to recover the initiative and set conditions. It will be a iron fist that seeks to restore dignity and success to the Muscovite army, which has suffered notable failures since its initial attempt to take kyiv.
All this will happen before the new Western weapons arrive in Ukraine, of a modernity unthinkable in that scenario until just a few months ago, such as the giant German, British and American tanks, unmatched in Russian strength.
Logic of the First World War
From a certain vision, the delay in these shipments would tip the sandbox in favor of Moscow, but the Kremlin continues to fight with some logic of World War I, with artillery, mines and trenches. These characteristics make it difficult to imagine a definition in the imminent escalation for which Ukraine has also been ready for a long time.
Looking at what has happened so far, it is not clear that Moscow, that in six months and with mercenary labor has conquered only a small town And at a huge cost in casualties, have enough resources for an assault that completely turns the compass of the conflict, say analysts in Europe.
The West bets on these weaknesses at the head of the United States, which, according to what has been said, cannot admit any other alternative than a round victory on Russia to build a precedent.
Putin, in his military challenge, has sought to embody the leaderships that faced the US and Europe in the Second War, a conflagration that the Germans and Japanese raised for spaces of power and market.
Those ambitions are the same ones that flutter in the conflict against Ukraine, but the enormous difference is that today’s Russia is incomparable with those players who, moreover, ended up defeated.
“So far, the results have been appalling because Russia was not ready,” admits Sergei Markov, a political consultant with close ties to the Kremlin, quoted in a detailed analysis by the agency. Bloomberg. “This has turned into a protracted war and Moscow still doesn’t have enough manpower or equipment to fight it,” he added in his criticism.
Former President Dmitri Medvedev himself, deputy head of the Security Council in the Kremlin, did not rule out the possibility of a Russian defeat, but he transformed that alternative into a nuclear threat.
“The atomic powers do not lose major conflicts on which their fate depends,” he recently warned, suggesting that the bomb will be the last and inevitable answer in that abyss
The scenario is complicated enough for realistic visions to emerge in Russia that maintain that it is already an achievement and too much effort to maintain the front line.
It is the vision of General Sergei Surovikin, who had been leading the war effort with a highly defensive approach after Ukraine surprised the world and the Russians themselves with the September offensive. But Surovikin he was relieved of command just three months after reaching that post.
protracted war
The extension of the conflict has always been bad news for the Russian leader, who nevertheless believes that the resilience of his forces, with unprecedented lows in any military episode since World War II, it has a chance if the country adapts to a permanent warlike climate.
That is why in recent months, as was the case in the times of the Soviet Union, Russian schools from primary to universities have started training for possible attacks. The intention is not so much to prevent as to install that common sense of endless war on the population.
kyiv discounts that the conflict enters an existential level for the Russian command. “The main fights are yet to come”warns Oleksy Danilov, head of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council.
In comments to Sky News the official remarked that Moscow “is putting together everything possible, doing drills and training. We are not excluding any scenario in the next two to three weeks.” The practices include Belarus, a crucial but at times critical ally of Moscow.
The attacks will be not only on land, but also from the sea and the air, warns Natalia Humeniuk, spokesperson for the defense forces in the south of the country. Hence, the Western allies are disembarking in the Ukraine huge amounts of anti-aircraft weapons that also admit offensive qualities.
The escalation assumes reasons not only military. General Valery Gerasimov, commander of the Armed Forces, has just been appointed to lead the war strategy in Ukraine in Surovikin’s place. He is he third senior military officer to assume that position from the start of the conflict. Clear fact, those relays, of the eventful course of the war.
As is known, this prestigious general has moved in alliance with the Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, to convince Putin of the advisability of taking over command of the conflict and do away with purely defensive criteria imposed by the displaced soldier.
This data is interesting from another perspective if one observes that Surovikin has been a central ally of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group which boasts of moving with greater skill than the Russian army itself. An offense for Gerasimov and the additional reason to push these changes.
However, to be crowned in that position and maintain his political influence in the midst of such an inmate, the fate of the offensive in the coming weeks will be crucial. The new military chief is obliged to offer results that break the deadlock and restore confidence in the Russian leader.
“With Putin still insisting that Russia take the entire Donbas and even kyiv, it is clear that General Gerasimov will be under immense pressure to carry out a successful offensive this spring. Now it’s up to him, and I suspect that Putin once again has unrealistic expectations.”said Mark Galeotti, a specialist in Russian security issues, quoted by The New York Times.
An anecdote is illustrative of the limits that the scenario exhibits. Gerasimov, possibly the most important soldier in Russia, has been in charge of the “modernization of the armed forces” in the last 10 years, an advance that remained in serious questioning in the failed Ukrainian military camp.
Just note that last April this influential official narrowly escaped death when visiting the troops at the front. An unacceptable incident in which dozens of soldiers and officers were killed and which dramatically exposed the army’s planning flaws.
“When you get into a real war, like the one in Ukraine, all shortcomings are immediately exposed.” Frederick Hodges, former commander of the US Army in Europe, tells the American newspaper.
The next few days will see to what extremes this can be true and what it ends up meaning in political terms. Power is getting the results you want. The opposite is simply the end.
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