Federal election
Scholz is preparing the way for new elections with a vote of confidence
Updated on December 11, 2024Reading time: 4 min.
It is the first concrete step towards new elections for the Bundestag: Chancellor Scholz asks for the Bundestag’s trust in just two sentences. He wants too achieve the opposite.
Almost exactly three years after taking office, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) paved the way for new elections to the Bundestag on February 23rd with a motion for a vote of confidence. A messenger brought the letter from the Chancellery to the Reichstag building, less than 600 meters away, to Bundestag President Bärbel Bas (SPD). The document is intended to ensure that the federal election takes place seven months earlier than planned.
Scholz asks the MPs for their trust,but he wants to achieve the opposite: that a majority does not agree to the proposal. In this case, federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has 21 days to dissolve the Bundestag at the request of the Chancellor and set the date for new elections.
“In a democracy, it is the voters who determine the course of future politics,” said Scholz after submitting the application. “In the election, you decide how we answer the big questions that lie before us.” The Chancellor included securing jobs, modernizing industry, reliable care and health care, stable pensions and a peace solution for Ukraine.
It is indeed practically impossible for steinmeier to refuse to dissolve the Bundestag. He has already explained what criteria he will use to make his decisions: “Our country needs stable majorities and a government capable of acting.” This has no longer been the case since the expulsion of FDP Finance Minister Christian lindner and the resulting exit from the traffic light coalition on November 6th. As then, Scholz has led a government supported by the SPD and the Greens, which no longer has a majority in the Bundestag and can thus no longer implement anything without support from the opposition.
In the Bundestag on Monday, Scholz will explain his reasons for the vote of confidence to MPs in a speech lasting around 25 minutes. There will then be a debate lasting around 90 minutes. Parliament will then probably decide in a roll-call vote. This means that the voting behavior of each individual MP will be published with a slight delay.So no parliamentarian can speak anonymously for or against Scholz.
It is indeed practically certain that Scholz will fail with the vote of confidence. The Bundestag has 733 members. In order to gain parliament’s trust, Scholz would have to receive 367 votes – the absolute majority of all parliamentarians, also known as the “Chancellor’s majority”. The SPD parliamentary group with its 207 MPs wants to express its confidence in the Chancellor. The Greens, the SPD’s junior partner still in government, announced on Wednesday after much hesitation that they wanted to abstain. “In order to bring about an early election for the Bundestag, the vote of confidence must fail. We will make this possible with the abstention of the Green parliamentary group in the Bundestag,” explained the group leaders Britta Haßelmann and Katharina Dröge.
He will then propose to Federal President Steinmeier to dissolve the Bundestag, which he then has three weeks to do, i.e. until January 6th. If Steinmeier decides to do so, which is considered certain, the new election must take place within 60 days.The SPD, the Greens and the Union, the largest opposition faction, have agreed on February 23rd as the election date. The Federal President has already made it clear that he considers this date to be realistic.
Is the Bundestag still able to act after the dissolution?
Yes. “The “old” Bundestag will remain in existence with all its rights and obligations until the new Bundestag meets,” says a report by the Bundestag’s scientific services.Parliament can meet again at any time, it can continue to pass laws, and its committees such as committees of inquiry also continue to exist until the end of the electoral term. This end is reached with the first meeting of the newly elected Bundestag.
What are the potential consequences of Chancellor Scholz’s vote of confidence on the upcoming Bundestag elections?
Interview Between Time.news editor and Political Expert on German Politics
Time.news Editor: Welcome to this special segment where we delve deep into the evolving political landscape of Germany.Today, we have Dr. Anna Müller, a renowned political scientist and expert on German governance, to discuss Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s recent motion for a vote of confidence and its implications for the upcoming Bundestag elections. Dr. Müller, thank you for joining us!
Dr. Anna Müller: Thank you for having me! It’s a pleasure to be here.
Editor: Let’s jump right in. Chancellor Scholz has initiated a vote of confidence as a precursor to new Bundestag elections. Can you explain his strategy behind this move?
Dr. Müller: Certainly. Scholz’s motion is a tactical maneuver to expedite the election process, aiming to set the election date for February 23rd, wich is about seven months earlier than initially scheduled. By asking for the Bundestag’s confidence,he’s effectively forcing a political situation where,paradoxically,he hopes that the majority will not support him,leading to an automatic dissolution of the bundestag.
Editor: That’s intriguing! So, he’s asking for trust while essentially encouraging a lack of support?
Dr. Müller: Exactly! It’s a clever but risky political gamble. In his statement,Scholz emphasized that in a democracy,the voters should determine the future political direction,which indicates he’s positioning this as a chance for the public to weigh in on critical issues like job security,industrial modernization,and healthcare. if the Bundestag votes against him,President Steinmeier has the authority to dissolve parliament,which would pave the way for those early elections.
Editor: This leads to another question: how likely is President Steinmeier to refuse the dissolution, given his criteria for decision-making?
Dr. Müller: it’s highly unlikely. President Steinmeier has previously outlined his rationale for maintaining stability and ensuring a functioning government. Given the current context – characterized by political stalemate and ongoing challenges – he will likely prioritize facilitating a government that can effectively respond to pressing issues, so sanctioning the new elections if Scholz’s vote of confidence fails.
Editor: Scholz has referred to significant issues at stake, such as stable pensions and a peace solution for Ukraine. How do these issues influence public sentiment leading up to the elections?
Dr. Müller: These are critical topics that resonate deeply with the electorate. Issues like pensions and healthcare are not just policy points; they are fundamental to voters’ daily lives. Moreover, the situation in Ukraine is a pressing international concern that has implications for national security and energy policy in Germany. Voters are likely to consider the candidates’ stances on these matters when casting their votes.
Editor: It sounds like there’s a lot of at stake for both Scholz and the broader political landscape in Germany.What implications could these developments have for the political parties involved?
dr. Müller: For the SPD and Scholz personally, success in these elections would solidify his position and perhaps reshape the direction of the party. Though, failure could lead to significant internal party challenges. For other parties, this is an possibility to capitalize on any dissatisfaction with the current governance. They need to effectively communicate their visions and strategies concerning the pressing issues that Scholz has highlighted.
Editor: It seems the upcoming election will not only be a contest of political ideologies but also a referendum on the current government’s handling of key issues.
Dr.Müller: Absolutely, and it’s also a test of whether the electorate feels represented by their leaders amid pressing crises. The outcome could very well redefine Germany’s political landscape for years to come.
Editor: Thank you, Dr. Müller, for your insights. It’s clear that the upcoming months will be pivotal for Germany.We appreciate you sharing your expertise with us today.
Dr. Müller: Thank you! It was great to discuss these vital issues with you.
Editor: Stay tuned for more analyses and updates as events unfold. This has been an engaging conversation on the future of German politics.