Does Biden‘s trip to Europe offer another chance to boost support for <a href="http://www.time.news/mega-storm-hits-southern-russia-and-ukraine/" title="“Mega storm” hits southern Russia and Ukraine”>Ukraine before Trump potentially wins the election?
I don’t think that’s the background to the Biden trip. Regardless of the outcome of the US election, there will probably be no further aid package from Americans worth $60 billion. Biden may want to talk in Europe about how to bring this war to a halt. That’s not easy because Putin doesn’t want the war to end.
This war will not end with the victory of one party. Russia will not turn the entire Ukraine into a vassal state. For Ukraine, in turn, it will be a question of what security guarantees Kiev can receive in possible negotiations. It is foreseeable that Ukraine will not regain sovereignty over part of its territory.
That depends on Western support. The Americans would also be particularly in demand when it comes to possible security guarantees.
No. The Europeans will also have to do something here, and that would also change the dynamics of this conflict.
At the moment, some countries in the Global South are not condemning the Russian attack on Ukraine because they consider the Ukraine war to be a conflict between the two old great imperialists – that is, between the USA and Russia. The second the Europeans were willing to guarantee Ukraine’s security, the Global South’s view of the conflict could change. Then there would be the chance that in the event of a partial loss of territory by Ukraine, demands would also be made on Russia. Russia would come under great pressure if India, South Africa, Latin America or even China were to at least partially abandon their previously neutral stance. These countries are also suffering from the war because they receive neither wheat nor fertilizer from Ukraine.
But wouldn’t the Western alliance have to strengthen Ukraine first in order to get Putin to the negotiating table?
I absolutely agree. The USA still does not want to allow Ukraine to attack targets in Russian territory with its long-range weapons. But Russia’s strength is also limited, and I don’t think we need to be so afraid. We must have no illusions: Putin not only wants Ukraine, but he also wants to confront what he sees as the decadent West wherever possible. There are people in Germany who are calling on Ukraine to give up parts of its territory so that peace can finally return. This is a cynical stance because it invites Putin to try again elsewhere once he has brought his army back into better shape.
In any case, Olaf Scholz is good for surprises.
Sigmar Gabriel
The geopolitical conflicts also influence the political debate in Germany. What lessons should your party learn from the US election campaign with a view to the upcoming federal election?
I have the impression that the big foreign policy questions play less of a role. And that my party tends to duck away from the difficult questions. She prefers to retreat to the social democratic warm room. There is no other explanation for the SPD’s current decisions about unrealistic promises in tax policy. In view of the war in Europe, Russia’s growing cyber aggression against Germany, an economic recession and the associated creeping deindustrialization, who is actually interested in mini tax cuts? Every day the traffic light coalition argues about a lack of money, and the SPD comes along and promises tax cuts. Who is supposed to believe that?
You are referring to the SPD’s tax plans for the election campaign, which also provide for increasing income taxes for the rich. Isn’t that appropriate for a social democratic party: take from the rich, give to everyone else?
I have nothing against taxing large incomes more. But anyone who promises people that a “moderate” tax increase for the one percent of the “rich” can ultimately relieve the burden on 95 percent of taxpayers must not have been paying attention to basic arithmetic. This doesn’t work mathematically: 400,000 taxpayers should relieve the burden on 41 million wage and income tax payers. A 10 percent increase in the “rich tax” would result in an amount of 8 billion euros. If you distribute it to the 95 percent of taxpayers, this results in a relief of 55 cents per day. That’s sheer nonsense.
What issues should your party focus on instead?
I consider the current plans to be an attempt to escape from the really difficult political issues: migration, internal security, energy policy, economic recession, massive loss of quality in our school system or also from the geopolitical challenges. You can impose a tax on the rich, but then please spend the money where it is needed most. For example in education. Every year we get worse in international comparisons, we complain about the lack of skilled workers, but we don’t do anything about it. In addition, the current federal government cannot manage a budget and the SPD is now promising tax cuts.
So you don’t think that the SPD can score points in the election campaign with this strategy?
No. However, the increase in the minimum wage, which was also promised, is the right thing to do. But: This does not replace courageous politics in all the other fields mentioned. But maybe that will come. In any case, Olaf Scholz is good for surprises.
In recent months, you have repeatedly called for the federal government and your party to communicate better on difficult issues – for example in the area of migration. Why doesn’t Chancellor Olaf Scholz do that?
I think he’s a smart person who definitely knows what’s required. That’s why I’m sure that the Chancellor will find a way to avoid making the tax nonsense my SPD decided on at the weekend an issue in the election campaign.
So do you still think Olaf Scholz is the SPD’s right candidate for chancellor?
If someone is chancellor, then they are also the next candidate for chancellor. Unless he doesn’t want to anymore. But I don’t assume that with Olaf Scholz.
Thank you for the interview, Mr. Gabriel.