(Washington) Tensions are escalating over Taiwan’s fate, placing China and the United States with a delicate choice: how far can they step up their pressure without the diplomatic competition derailing into a conflict between the two nuclear superpowers.
The two leading world economies clash head-on on many issues in a Cold War climate, but the Taiwanese question is often considered the only one likely to provoke an armed confrontation.
In recent days, the Chinese military air force has carried out a record number of incursions near the island – which communist China considers one of its provinces, regularly threatening to use force in the event of a formal proclamation of independence.
“It was to tell Taiwan that no one can come to its aid,” said Oriana Skylar Mastro, a researcher at California University at Stanford and at the American Enterprise Institute think tank.
A warning therefore, rather than preparations for an invasion, even if the Taiwanese government fears that Beijing will be able to launch a major attack as early as 2025.
In addition to Washington, allies of the United States have recently taken positions that annoy the Chinese authorities: Japan has supported Taiwan, especially in its intention to join a regional trade bloc, and Australia has formed an alliance with the Americans and the United States. British, nicknamed AUKUS, to better counter China.
Risk of misunderstanding
For Oriana Skylar Mastro, the latter wants to mean by its aerial incursions that “none of this will change its strategic calculations”.
Taiwan has had its own government since 1949 and the victory of the Communists on the Chinese mainland, who promise to obtain reunification.
The United States has recognized the People’s Republic of China since 1979, but at the same time the American Congress requires that Taiwan be supplied with arms for its self-defense.
A balancing act which has largely preserved the peace. But the risk exists that a misunderstanding could degenerate into a conflict: the American Chief of Staff, Mark Milley, recently admitted to calling his Chinese counterpart during the chaotic end of Donald Trump’s term to ensure that the American president does not had no intention of attacking the rival country.
Jake Sullivan, national security adviser to current President Joe Biden, discussed Taiwan during a meeting last week in Switzerland with one of China’s top diplomats, Yang Jiechi.
Then asked to say, on the BBC, if the United States was ready to intervene militarily to defend the island, he replied: “we will act now to try to ensure that this is never necessary”.
A Pentagon official confirmed to AFP that US special forces were quietly training the Taiwanese army.
“Gray area”
But the Biden administration has so far blocked another symbolic measure that would allow the Taiwanese mission in Washington to benefit from the more official name of Taiwan Representative Office.
“Selling weapons is something worth taking risks, because it helps Taiwan hold out longer,” says Oriana Skylar Mastro. “The name changes can be used to show that the United States is ready for a standoff, but in the end it risks above all strengthening Chinese determination. ”
According to Kuo Yujen, a political analyst at Taiwan’s Sun Yat-sen National University, US authorities are trying to show Beijing that its growing pressure is “counterproductive to China’s objectives and the stability of the Taiwan Strait.”
However, Chinese President Xi Jinping seems to be sending mixed messages. Despite the air raids, he also pleaded Saturday for “peaceful reunification”.
Craig Singleton, of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank close to the “hawks” of American foreign policy, believes that this speech was, “once is not customary, measured and realistic.”
Washington should take this into account, he said, because “it doesn’t make much sense to continue fueling Taiwan’s desire to acquire sophisticated and expensive weapons knowing that they could be destroyed by the Chinese military. from the first hours of a possible conflict ”.
The United States would do better to prepare for an increase in Chinese intimidation against the island and for “lasting competition” in a “gray area” on the fringes of the classic military conflict, he recommends.
For Michael Swaine, of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, which pleads for restraint in diplomacy, Washington and Beijing must absolutely strengthen the dialogue to find the right balance between “deterrence and good understanding”.
“Both sides must recognize that they are both contributing to the collision we are witnessing in slow motion,” he warns in a recent memo.