2024-03-27 17:57:28
The moderate and mobile classes that can change candidate support in close combat areas in the metropolitan area are emerging as the biggest variables.
The proportion of the moderates who do not ideologically support a specific political party or the floating class who currently support a candidate but can withdraw their support at any time amounts to around 30%.
According to a comprehensive analysis of opinion polls in five battleground areas reported by News 1 on the 27th from the 26th, moderate voters in all battlegrounds except Busan Bukgap responded that they ‘may change to support other candidates’ than progressive and conservative voters. The ratio appeared high.
Specifically, when asked about ‘intent to continue supporting’, the proportion who answered ‘may change to support another candidate’ was △ Mapo-eul (conservative 20% – moderate 31% – progressive 22%) △ Suwon County (conservative 25% – moderate 34%) – Progressives 15%) △ Gyeyang-eul (Conservatives 15% – Moderates 29% – Progressives 16%) △ Gwangjin-eul (Conservatives 16% – Moderates 32% – Progressives 28%).
Considering that in major battlegrounds, the outcome is often decided by a margin of less than a single digit, the fact that 3 out of 10 moderates can change their minds means that the outcome can also change.
Ultimately, in the metropolitan area, it is expected that the results may vary in major competitive battlegrounds, including battlegrounds, depending on the messages and actions of the ruling and opposition parties. In particular, it appears that the ‘regime judgment theory’ and ‘regime stability theory’ will have an impact on voters’ votes depending on which one is more dominant.
At this point, with about 15 days left until the general election, when asked, ‘Which do you agree with between the regime judgment theory (many opposition party candidates must be elected to keep the government in check) or the regime stability theory (many ruling party candidates must be elected to support the government) in this election?’ The ‘government judgment theory’ is dominant.
Specifically, 5 to 6 out of 10 voters in the battleground areas of the metropolitan area are more likely to agree with the claim that the government will be judged. The proportion of voters who agree with the theory of judging the regime is Mapo-eul (60%), Suwon-eul (56%), Gyeyang-eul (52%), and Gwangjin-eul (55%). On the other hand, the proportion of voters who agreed with the theory of regime stability was only Mapo-eul (32%), Suwon-eul (35%), Gyeyang-eul (39%), and Gwangjin-eul (35%).
However, unlike the metropolitan area, Busan’s Bukgap, which is part of the ‘Nakdong River Belt’, showed slightly different results. This is because, regardless of political inclination, 8 out of 10 voters answered that they ‘will likely continue to support’ the candidate they are currently interested in (81% conservatives, 82% moderates, and 77% progressives). It is interpreted that they are relatively more determined than voters in the metropolitan area. The percentage of respondents who said ‘it could change to support another candidate’ was 19% conservative, 17% moderate, and 22% progressive.
Meanwhile, this survey targeted 502 men and women over the age of 18 in Gyeyang, 500 in Mapo-eul, 500 in Gwangjin, 501 in Buk-gap, and 504 in Suwon-byeong. A sample was randomly selected from the mobile phone virtual number frame provided by telecommunication companies, and a structured questionnaire was administered. The interview was conducted using a wireless phone. The sampling error is ±4.4% points (p) at the 95% confidence level.
For more information, please refer to the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee website.
Reporter Kim Jeong-hyeon Photo News 1
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2024-03-27 17:57:28