2024-03-25 10:26:39
In this situation, everything is penultimate, and one can hardly give any definite prediction. Since March 6, I have been claiming that the ruling majority has broken down and cannot produce any sustainable coalition and any kind of cabinet and government from now on.
This is what sociologist Assoc. Stoicho Stoichev said to “24 Chasa” in connection with successive statements of GERB-SDS and PP-DB through the media. Earlier today, Maria Gabriel announced that on Monday she will give up her candidacy for prime minister, and GERB is giving up the first mandate and will not participate in the negotiations for the second. Later, the resigned Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov called for early elections not to be held, and for GERB-SDS to agree on a government with Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Maria Gabriel and without a change of ministers.
However, it is possible that “We continue the change”, who seem to be the only ones trying to save this NA and look for some way out of the situation, accept GERB’s requests or give up their claims.
It is possible that the development will be postponed for the next few days, which is likely given everything we have seen since the resignation of the “Denkov” cabinet was voted.
There is a chance to reach an agreement in the second term, but it is negligible compared to the one that existed in the first term. If GERB refused to implement the first mandate, it would be very exotic for them to support anything at all in the second.
Delyan Peevski has already said that there is no way to govern in this parliament without GERB-SDS. So whoever the president gives the third mandate to, everyone has stated that they prefer elections to looking for options – both BSP, ITN, Vazrazhdane, and DPS.
The road map to early elections will be clear when Maria Gabriel resigns from the mandate. Then the question will be not if, but when will be the date of the elections, whether together with the Eurovote or another Sunday.
When 2-in-1 choices are combined, a number of problems arise – not so much in terms of administration as in the intertwining of motivations and meanings. People go to vote for one thing, and you make them vote for another. So the OSCE recommendations have always been that combined elections are a bad option and have recommended different days for different elections. The combined option is only for countries with a strong civic and electoral culture. When 70% of the people do not know what and who to vote for in the European elections, but went to vote in the parliamentary elections, but you stimulate them to participate in the others, it is possible to produce a result in the European elections that will surprise everyone in the end. And for an anomaly to occur, because it is not clear whether these people will vote pro-, anti-, whether they will vote for recognizable things, etc.
In the parliamentary elections, we have a great polarization, between the two main partners in the government. If this polarization spills over into the Euro vote, it is possible to give a boost to anti-European parties. Therefore, it is good to separate them, but that will be decided by the politicians, and their logic is related to their own performance and results, and rational considerations remain in the background.