The financier indicated the range of the ruble exchange rate for 12 months ahead – Rossiyskaya Gazeta

The Russian ruble continues to hold close to its multi-month highs against the dollar and the euro, supported by expectations of a further increase in the key rate by the Bank of Russia and high energy prices.

Especially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta, FINAM analyst Anna Zaitseva named the main factors affecting the ruble and gave a forecast for the national currency rate for 12 months ahead:

– Against the backdrop of accelerating inflation, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation began implementing a strategy to tighten monetary policy, consistently raising the key rate. In the period from March to September from 4.25% to 6.75%. At the same time, the regulator has not yet completed the rate hike cycle. And at the October meeting, we expect it to rise to at least 7%, and at the December meeting, if inflationary pressure persists, up to 7.25%.

At a time when most central banks are only discussing plans to roll back monetary incentives, the actions of the Bank of Russia provide significant support to the national currency.

In addition, high oil prices continue to strengthen the ruble, which are firmly entrenched above the $ 80 level and are approaching $ 85 per barrel.

Also, one cannot fail to note the breaking records of gas and coal prices, as a result of which many countries found themselves on the verge of a full-scale energy crisis. However, the Russian economy is in an advantageous position.

According to preliminary estimates of the Bank of Russia, the RF current account surplus in the third quarter amounted to a record $ 40.8 billion. This is due to the favorable conjuncture on the commodity markets and is a good basis for the strengthening of the ruble.

In our opinion, oil prices will remain high until the end of this year, given the continuing imbalance between supply and demand. And only next year, as the supply on the oil market increases, one can expect some cooling of prices for black gold. In these conditions, we assume that the USD / RUB rate may drop below the level of 71.5 rubles for a short time.

The upcoming tax period in Russia will provide additional support for the ruble in the near future. Exporters will increase the sale of foreign exchange earnings in the domestic market to pay taxes.

Formally, the tax period starts on October 15 with the payment of insurance premiums to off-budget funds. And its peak will be on October 25, when the mineral extraction tax, VAT and excise taxes will be paid.

At the same time, the general market trend towards the strengthening of the US dollar may act as a restraining factor for the ruble in the medium term. The Federal Reserve is preparing to soon begin phasing out the asset purchase program and complete this process by the middle of next year.

What’s more, 9 out of 18 Fed executives expect a base rate hike in 2022, with three of them expecting the rate to be increased twice. In this light, the demand for the US currency continues to grow, which will limit the potential for ruble appreciation.

Our target range for the USD / RUB rate for Q4 2021 is 71.5-74 rubles per dollar. And for 12 months in advance – 70-75 rubles per dollar.



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