Based on the data published by the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, the “LUYS” Foundation analyzed the socio-economic developments of the RA economy in 2023. in January-October.
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The growth rate of economic activity has slowed down, which was expected given the gradually decreasing contribution of high-growth factors to the GDP. In recent months (except for August), the monthly growth of the GDP has stabilized around 6%, as a result of which the cumulative growth rate has also decreases and was 9.2% in January-October. Based on the effect of the base, the cumulative index of TAC will continue to decrease in the following months, because monthly growth rates will be low.
The worrisome developments in the industry have been going on for quite some time, which means that there are significant problems in the industry. In recent months, not only the mining industry has seen a decline. but also in the sectors of the processing industry, which is more dangerous. decrease), on the other hand, due to the decrease in the competitiveness of RA products, which becomes more pronounced in the conditions of the slowdown in the growth of re-exports. This situation can lead to a decrease in the potential of the economy and long-term sustainable growth is also an indicator of a decrease in investment activity in the sector.
The problem of underperformance of the state budget is still not resolved. Although operations with non-financial assets (which are mainly capital expenditures) increased by 32.6%, their volume is still far from the planned level it was planned to implement 381.8 billion drams (the specified plan for the same period is larger and amounts to 394.4 billion drams) with non-financial assets operations, while in January-October only about 70% of the plan was implemented (and 67.7% of the specified plan), which amounts to 266.9 billion drams.
The net inflow of funds transferred from abroad to RA continues to be at a low level in 2023 compared to the previous year. In September, the net inflow of money transferred to Armenia through the banking system (the difference between inflow and outflow) was 97 million USD, being significantly lower than the indicators of the beginning of the year and the last months of the previous year. the net volume of remittances decreased compared to the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in outflows.
The full analysis is available at the following link.