Last week, RIVM counted only four new people infected with the monkeypox virus. This means that the number of new infections has been falling for ten weeks. The virus seems to be under control, but the RIVM is not yet flying the flag.
Why is the number of infections so small?
There are several explanations for the small numbers. “Informing and creating awareness may have caused people to behave differently,” says a spokesperson for the RIVM. “And through the source and contact investigation, potentially infected persons were advised to temporarily go into isolation.”
Virologist Marion Koopmans adds that there seems to be more immunity in the risk group. “A lot of people from the high-risk group have already had the virus,” she says.
By this she mainly means men who have varying sexual contacts with other men, although anyone can get monkey pox. It is not an STD and certainly not a ‘gay disease’.
Total number of infections
How’s vaccination going?
Just over eighteen thousand shots against monkey pox have now been given, of which almost five thousand are second vaccinations. Most of the vaccines have been put in Amsterdam.
The turnout for the jab is lower than the Ministry of Health had previously estimated, Minister Ernst Kuipers (Public Health) said in a letter to parliament on Thursday. Is that bad?
Koopmans: “You would like the vaccination rate to be higher because the virus is still in many countries.” The question is whether the virus “simmers” and can flare up again. “In that case, you want to have as many people vaccinated as possible,” says the virologist.
The vaccination target group mainly consists of men who have sex with men. It is a very small group with the largest number of sexual contacts that has the greatest impact on the spread of the virus. By fully vaccinating them, the reproduction number (i.e. the extent to which the virus spreads) is reduced by 40 percent, the letter to parliament states.
A vaccine is less effective for people with fewer sexual contacts. For this group it especially helps to recognize the complaints and to test themselves. In the event of an infestation, experts recommend going into isolation and alerting your partner.
Can the virus still survive?
“We cannot look into a crystal ball,” says the RIVM spokesperson. Koopmans adds: “The virus is not gone, but we have no indications yet that the infections are increasing again.”
Experts, including from RIVM, had previously warned that pride events this summer could lead to a more intensive spread of the virus. That worked out. According to the RIVM, about forty pride visitors have tested positive. The actual number could be slightly larger.
“The knowledge about monkey pox comes from studies in Africa,” says Koopmans. “We see that the contagiousness in the Dutch environment is not so bad.”
Can we then say that we have the monkeypox virus under control?
“That is still too early,” says the RIVM spokesperson. “The virus can spread to the Netherlands again from abroad.”
“Infections are still being found in a large number of countries worldwide,” says Koopmans. “The virus has been circulating in Nigeria for a long time and there is no vaccination there. We will not have the virus under control until it is under control worldwide.”
The course of the infections in the Netherlands.
The course of the infections in the Netherlands.