The Mosbirzh index by 15:00 on January 13 fell by 2.3% in relation to the close of trading on January 12 – to 3742 points. Its dollar analogue, the RTS index, falls by almost 3% (1565 points). The dollar exceeded 75 rubles. (+ 0.39% to the closing price), the euro is traded at 86 rubles.
The blue-chip index is down 2.5%. The shares of both industrial and oil and gas Russian companies fell in price, as did the shares of banks and retailers. Most of all, Norilsk Nickel is losing in price (4.05%), shares of Novatek, Magnit and Surgutneftegaz are falling by 1.7-2.81%.
Russian stocks on the London Stock Exchange are also falling in price.
Gazprom loses 2.71% ($ 8.97). NLMK shares fell from the previous close of 0.88% to $ 29.34. The securities of Russian banks also fell in price: VTB – by 3.48% ($ 1.25), Sberbank – by 2.29% to ($ 15.07). The price of securities of TCS Group Holding, which includes Tinkoff Bank, is reduced by 0.98% ($ 81.2). The downward trend also affected retail: Magnit lost 2.16% ($ 14.6), Lenta – 1.32% ($ 2.62), X5 Group – 2.4% ($ 26).
At the same time, Gazprom Neft shares rose by 0.5% ($ 5.63), Lukoil’s global depositary receipts – by 1.66% ($ 90.73), Rosneft – by 1.87% to $ 8 , 14 per paper. Severstal’s receipts ($ 21) also added 0.85% in price.
Why is the market falling?
On January 13, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in an interview with RTVI that the United States and its allies in the North Atlantic Alliance are by no means ready to meet Russia’s key security requirements. The US and NATO are ready to speak only on those topics of security guarantees that are convenient for them, Ryabkov said.
It seems that the tightening of rhetoric on the part of Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov caught investors by surprise, which explains the nervous reaction of the Russian stock market to this event, said Oleg Syrovatkin, a leading analyst at the Otkritie Broker global research department. On January 12, the market completely ignored the new package of sanctions presented by the American senators, intended in the event of a “Russian invasion of the territory of Ukraine.” Most likely, the likelihood of such a development of events was assessed by investors as minimal, but today they were forced to overestimate the risks, the expert said.
Ruble assets went down after statements that Moscow sees no reason to hold a new round of negotiations with the United States on security guarantees in the near future, agrees Dmitry Babin, an expert on the BCS World of Investments stock market: another deterioration in the geopolitical situation has increased country risks and the corresponding discount in ruble assets, which against this background are likely to continue to decline, at least in the short term.
On January 12, the US Senate published a draft law on sanctions against Russia in support of Ukraine, which was supported by the administration of President Joe Biden. In the document, the criterion for imposing sanctions is no longer the direct “invasion” of Russian troops into Ukraine, but the situation, which the US President will assess as a “significant military escalation” by Russia aimed at overthrowing the Ukrainian government. The bill assumes, in particular, that at least three of 12 Russian financial institutions – Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank, VEB.RF, RDIF, Credit Bank of Moscow, Alfa-Bank, Rosselkhozbank, Otkritie Bank , Promsvyazbank, Sovcombank and Transcapitalbank.
The market is actually not sinking so much, says Grigory Isaev, Managing Director for Strategic Development of Aton Management: after a series of cutoffs on large securities over the past 2-3 weeks, the real dynamics of the market, taking into account dividends, has improved.
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