At the time of writing, based on the “vaccination map” of Our World in Data, in Israel were administered 10.33 million doses of Covid vaccine. Bearing in mind that the Middle Eastern country has a population of just under 9 million inhabitants, this number shows how rapid, effective and widespread the vaccination campaign local, considered the most virtuous of all in the world. Accomplice was the agreement between the Israeli government and the pharmaceutical giant Pfizer, which in exchange for the constant publication of scientific data has ensured a large supply of doses of its vaccine BNT162b2 / Tozinameran, developed in close cooperation with the German biotechnology company BioNTech. As of today, Monday, April 19, about 60 percent of the Israeli population has received both planned doses and is therefore fully immunized. This path led to a real collapse of new infections, hospital admissions e deaths, so much so that on Sunday 18 April the government lifted the obligation to use outdoor masks and has reopened all schools of all levels (it hadn’t happened since September).
To underline that these results are due to the extensive vaccination campaign and not to the very rigid one lockdown to which the Israeli population has recently been subjected is a research team led by scientists from the Department of Molecular Cell Biology of the Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehovot, who collaborated closely with colleagues from the Technion – Israel Institute of Technology in Haifa, of the Department of Statistics and Operations Research of Tel Aviv University and Rambam Health Care Campus. The scientists, coordinated by Professors Malka Gorfine, Uri Shalit and Eran Segal, conducted an in-depth retrospective analysis on data collected by the Israeli Ministry of Health between 28 August 2020 and 24 February 2021, focusing on the temporal dynamics related to new cases of COVID-19 and to hospitalizations after the vaccination campaign, which began on December 20, 2020.
Professor Segal and colleagues made several comparisons between groups of data to verify whether the improving epidemiological curves were the result of the vaccination campaign and not others anti Covid measures like the aforementioned lockdown. For example, they compared i infection rates and hospitalization for coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 among the over 60s (vaccinated first) with those of most Young people vaccinated at a later time; they compared the data related to the lockdown in September with those of the lockdown started on January 8 (in the middle of the vaccination campaign); and compared the data from city who received doses first with those who received them later. By comparing all the data, it clearly emerged that “a larger and earlier decrease in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations was observed among individuals over the age of 60, followed by younger age groups, according to the order vaccination priority, ”Segal and colleagues write in the abstract of the study. “This pattern – the experts add – was not observed in the previous lockdown and was more pronounced in early vaccinated cities. Our analysis demonstrates the effect in real life of a national vaccination campaign on pandemic dynamics ”, conclude Segal and colleagues.
The study authors explain that when vaccine effects occur, there are two complementary forms of rating. One is theefficacy of the vaccine, which measures the direct effects of the drug in those who have been vaccinated; the other is the measure of the overall impact of the vaccination campaign on the entire population, called “vaccine impact“. Based on the data collected, it was found that the first form in Israel demonstrated 51% effectiveness at 13-24 days after the first dose and more than 90 percent at 7 or more days after the second dose. Regarding the impact of the vaccine on the population, the efficacy was found to be 46% at 14-20 days after the first dose and 92% at 7 or more days after the second dose. By January 7, 2021, the study authors explain, about 70 percent of the population over 60 had already been vaccinated with the first dose or was healed, gradually rising to 88.5% (first dose) and 81% (with both doses) by 24 February. As the graphs in the article show, one was observed between January 15 and February 24 significant decrease in infections and hospitalizations precisely in the over 60 group, higher than that observed among the under 60 vaccinated in a second phase. “A 45% versus 28% decrease in positive test rate and 68% versus 22% decrease in admissions versus peak was observed in individuals 60 years of age or older compared to individuals aged 20 and 39 years old, ”the Israeli study reads.
The analysis also revealed that, more than 2 months after the start of the vaccination campaign, when 85% of individuals over 60 were already vaccinated with two doses (February 24, 2021), there was a decline of about 77% of cases, a 45% drop in the percentage of positive tests, a 68% drop in hospitalizations and a 67% drop in severe hospitalizations compared to the peak values. “Although many factors other than vaccines may have influenced these results, several observations suggest that these models are likely to be driven, to a considerable extent, by vaccines,” the study authors explain. These differences were also highlighted by comparing the lockdown data (before and during the vaccination campaign) and those of the cities that received the doses first with those that received them later. “Overall, we show an analysis of large-scale real-world data from Israel demonstrating the effectiveness of the national vaccination campaign. Although our findings are preliminary, they have important public health implications for the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, ”the researchers conclude. The details of the research “COVID-19 dynamics after a national immunization program in Israel” have been published in the authoritative scientific review Nature Medicine.