For the third year in a row, Russia has targeted Ukraine‘s energy infrastructure. The intention is clear – to make Ukrainian cities uninhabitable, disrupt the economy, cause panic and create a humanitarian crisis. Although Russia has not yet achieved its goal, according to energy expert and former Ukrainian parliamentarian Viktoria Vojcicka, it is reassessing its tactics to make its attacks more destructive.
Kyiv (from our special correspondent) – Before the invasion, Ukraine had an electricity generation capacity of 36 gigawatts. As of June 2024, due to missile attacks and the occupation of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, the country already operates on only nine gigawatts. According to a new study by the International Center for Ukrainian Victory from this August, in the period until the spring of 2023, Russian missile attacks on the energy grid reduced the capacity by 18.1 gigawatts, and other attacks from this spring by another nine.
In other words, Ukraine has only 25 percent of its reserves left. Part is being restored, part is completely destroyed and cannot be restored. “We are in an absolutely dire situation. Much worse than last year. Ukraine will soon face an energy disaster and we can hardly do anything about it,” Vojcicka told Aktuálně.cz. According to her, the situation is particularly critical for coal and gas-fired power plants, which provide electricity at times of peak consumption.
Attacks on energy infrastructure have already led to widespread power outages in many parts of Ukraine in recent months, including areas far from the contact line. This August, for example, Russia launched a massive attack in which it used 127 missiles and 109 Iranian Shahid drones. These attacks affected, among other things, parts of the transmission network across Ukraine and seriously damaged four high-voltage substations, including those in Kyiv, Vinnytsia, and Zaporizhia.
Because of these attacks, electricity is only available for a few hours a day in most parts of Ukraine. “If there’s one thing that every Ukrainian has at home, it’s pretty powerful power banks for several charges. It’s not even winter yet and we’re already dealing with regular power outages,” points out Vojcicka.
In addition, Russia has changed its tactics to make the attacks more destructive. Instead of targeting only the transmission network and substations, it focused on the facilities themselves, including power plants and cogeneration units. For example, the attacks also damaged a solar power plant far from the frontline, which makes it difficult for Ukraine to use renewable energy. The occupiers attack first with drones that weaken air defenses, and then come missile strikes.
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This winter, according to Vojcicka, precisely for these reasons, it is expected that there will be a shortage of at least four to five gigawatts of electricity in Ukraine. “In practice, this could look like Ukrainians will only have electricity for ten hours a day. However, the shortage could be much greater if the attacks continue and Russia continues to succeed in destroying power plants and important parts of the transmission network,” he warns. He also expects power outages to last for weeks.
The Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, warned on Tuesday that Ukraine is preparing for massive Russian strikes against energy infrastructure during the fall and winter months. “It will start with the start of the heating season,” he said.
Although Ukraine can import electricity from European countries such as Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, this option is limited to 1.7 gigawatts. That’s not enough to cover the growing demand the country expects this winter. That is why Vojcicka points out that right now Western aid in the form of weapons is more crucial than ever before.
“I’ll repeat what our government says all the time. It will ultimately cost our partners less if they provide us with sufficient air defense now. But most of all, we need the ability to target Russian bases. We can only try to shoot down as many enemy weapons as possible, but we will never achieve 100 percent success , that is simply impossible. If something does not change, the situation will not improve at all. On the contrary, it will only get worse,” says Vojcická.
Ukraine is also expecting another wave of migration this winter. An additional 1.5 million people fled the attacked country during last winter due to attacks on energy infrastructure. Due to further major damage to the energy industry, it is expected that there will be even more refugees this year. “It is cheaper for Europe to provide Ukraine with defense against these attacks than to face new waves of refugees,” concludes Vojcicka.
She works as the director of the International Center for Ukrainian Victory and is a member of the board of directors of the Ukrainian non-profit organization Center Against Corruption. Between 2014 and 2019, she worked as a member of the Ukrainian Parliament and secretary of the Energy and Nuclear Safety Committee. She significantly contributed to energy reforms and promoted independent energy regulation.
She is known for her stance against the influence of oligarchs in the oil and gas sector. She previously worked as an auditor and CFO at PricewaterhouseCoopers and Concorde Capital.
Born in Kyiv, she graduated from Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics in 2002 with a degree in Banking. In 2005, she earned a master’s degree in international finance from Brandeis International Business School.
Photo: Aktuálně.cz