President Zelensky presents his “victory plan” in the Ukrainian parliament. Ukraine urgently needs hope for an end to the war. But it remains completely unclear how she wants to bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table.
The tension was great. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented his “victory plan” on Wednesday. Finally. For over a month, international observers have been puzzling over how Ukraine plans to end or even win the war with Russia. After all, the situation remains dramatically bad for the defenders, at least in eastern Ukraine. But Zelensky had already presented his ideas to US President Joe Biden, he spoke to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron – and even Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.
Compared to these illustrious and, above all, powerful interlocutors, the result of the plan that has now been made public is rather sobering. But that wasn’t really to be expected. Whether Ukraine can enter into negotiations with Vladimir Putin in a stronger position rests primarily in the hands of the West. And on this political front, things are currently looking rather bleak for Kyiv.
Therefore, Zelensky’s “victory plan” will not pave the way for Ukraine to victory. Rather, he formulates a lot of maximum things from a Ukrainian perspective – maximum requests towards the West, maximum positions towards Russia. Zelensky wants to give his people and the West hope that the war will end and show a light at the end of the tunnel. But this plan is unlikely to work because many of Zelensky’s proposals are simply castles in the air.
An example of this is joining NATO. Ukraine wants to join NATO, which is understandable from their perspective. But the military alliance does not accept any country with unresolved territorial conflicts, but the war with Russia can be classified as such. In addition, every NATO member country must agree to an expansion – including Hungary and Turkey. But Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in particular would probably refuse to do so even without war because of his proximity to Russia.
In addition, Zelensky renewed his request that Western countries help Ukraine shoot down Russian warplanes. That is utopian. Countries like Germany and the USA also reject a no-fly zone because they do not want to be drawn into a direct war between NATO and Russia.
But this major war would be the consequence if Ukraine were to join NATO immediately.
Of course Zelensky knows this. His “victory plan” also documents that he is aware that this war will ultimately be decided at the negotiating table. That will also be the time when Ukraine’s accession to NATO will come back on the table. For a possible peace agreement, Ukraine needs security guarantees, i.e. assurances that Russia will not attack the country again in a few years. Only NATO can actually provide these protection guarantees, but so far there has been little discussion about them in the West.
That’s exactly what needs to change with a view to possible negotiations – and that’s why Kiev keeps discussing joining NATO. It should therefore be seen as a positioning with a view to the future and not as an immediate demand.
On the other hand, it remains completely unclear how Ukraine wants to force Russia to the negotiating table in the medium term – and a strategy is now needed for this. One thing is certain: Moscow is currently not sending any signals that it is interested in talks at all. Putin is waiting, after all, he currently sees himself on the winning road and is probably hoping for Donald Trump’s victory in the US election.