The planet is heading towards an average warming of 2.7 degrees by the end of the century, a scenario that could have serious repercussions in Canada and Quebec where the climate is warming twice as fast as the world average.
In a report released on Friday, the United Nations (UN) indicated that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will increase by 16% by 2030. A trajectory that would lead us to “catastrophic” warming 2.7 degrees by 2100, a far cry from the 1.5 degree target set by the Paris Agreement.
In Canada, average temperatures will be well above 2.7 degrees if the trend continues. In a worst-case scenario, they could climb to 6.3 degrees by the end of the century, according to a report released by Environment Canada in 2019.
In Montreal, for example, the annual average temperature would increase by 6.7 degrees by 2100 in a scenario where GHG emissions would remain high, estimates for its part the Quebec consortium Ouranos.
Days when the temperature will be above 32 degrees would become practically the norm during the summer. Annual precipitation is also said to be on the rise in the metropolis, increasing the risk of flooding and pressure on the water and sewer system.
Health, the main victim of climate change
“I’m not surprised, but it’s still very shocking,” said the president of the Quebec Association of Physicians for the Environment (AQME), the Dre Claudel Pétrin-Desrosiers, on this new UN report.
The situation is shocking, she says, because climate change is the main threat to the health of Canadians. An issue that was completely hidden during this federal election campaign, she adds.
“Global warming of 2.7 degrees will be catastrophic for the health of the population. What will be the consequences for the provision of health care? Will we have enough resources? ” The Dre Pétrin-Desrosiers asks herself the question when she observes how the health network is struggling to cope with the current pandemic.
A report by the Canadian Institute for Climate Choices unveiled in June sounded the alarm on the feared consequences on the health of Canadians, calling on decision-makers to invest more in adaptation and not only in the fight against change. climatic.
Two days before the federal election, the Climate-Energy campaign manager at Greenpeace Canada, Patrick Bonin, believes for his part that this new report shows the urgency of putting aside the partisanship of political parties in Ottawa on the issue of change. climatic. “We are very likely heading for a minority government and the parties will have to work together. ”
None of the four major parties in Canada are proposing sufficiently ambitious targets and credible plans [pour réduire nos émissions]. As a wealthy country, Canada has a huge responsibility and must become a leader.
Patrick Bonin, Climate-Energy campaign manager at Greenpeace Canada
The question of the responsibility of large economies in terms of the climate is also one of the recurring tensions on the diplomatic scene, as is the question of financial aid. The countries of the North pledged in 2009 to increase climate assistance to the countries of the South to 100 billion dollars per year by 2020. According to OECD figures released on Friday, this aid amounted to only 79.6 billion in 2019.
Like playing Jenga
Like the Jenga game, where participants must take turns removing a block without the tower collapsing, Claudel Pétrin-Desrosiers wonders how long the leaders can afford to propose insufficient measures.
For her, every missed opportunity is in a way a block that is taken out of the game. “We are heading towards a world that we are not able to define. We will be in a scenario where we will have to constantly react with little time to do so. ”
Consult the website of the Quebec consortium Ouranos Consult the report The costs of climate change for health from the Canadian Institute for Climate Choices
Wrong direction
The UN report assessed the national commitments of 191 countries that were submitted as of July 30. The emissions of 113 of them, who submitted new targets, would be reduced by 12% for these nations which account for 49% of global GHG emissions. The catch is that global emissions would nonetheless increase by 16% by 2030 compared to 2010 if you take into account the 78 other countries that have not adopted new targets. According to UN climate officer Patricia Espinosa, “the figures for greenhouse gas emissions are going in the wrong direction”. She says she hopes for new commitments by the next international climate conference, COP26, scheduled for early November.
The costs of warming
246 billion
Annual health costs in Canada in 2100 linked to increasing urban smog.
102 %
The heat-related hospitalization rate could increase by 102% in Canada by 2100.
14.9 billion
Estimated annual heat-related productivity losses by 2100 in Canada.
Source: Canadian Institute for Climate Choices
They said :
Failure to meet this target will be measured by the number of deaths and livelihoods destroyed.
António Guterres, Secretary General of the United Nations
We must act, all of us, we must act now.
US President Joe Biden at the start of a virtual summit with nine foreign leaders.
It is high time that they [les pays du G20] rise up and treat this crisis as a crisis.
Sonam P. Wangdi, President of the Developing Countries Group