This election campaign was not what the Liberals expected. Although they got the ball rolling, it soon became apparent that they were ill-prepared for the battle: they clearly intended to lead it into a much different and, above all, less hostile political arena.
Before the election was called on August 15, internal Liberal Party polls showed a majority Trudeau government with a few seats – an uncomfortable position, but a lead nonetheless. The Prime Minister’s popularity rating was better than it was in 2019; the party was confident.
So what was Justin Trudeau planning to say to journalists who wanted to know the real reason for these elections? In short: it was expected that after three days no one would look for an answer to this boring question.
The campaign would focus on how to better revive the economy, said the Trudeau clan. All eyes would be on the liberal announcements in the environment, on the pan-Canadian child care program, on the management of the pandemic. As Mr. Trudeau demonstrated from the first moments of the campaign, the issue of compulsory vaccination against COVID-19 was to become a point of division; the Liberals hoped to cast doubt on Erin O’Toole’s approach to public health.
The Conservative leader has been hurt. He tried to find a compromise – thought long and hard to please his troops – by encouraging Canadians to get vaccinated, while leaving the antivaxers the option of using rapid tests and masks, but it was barely. lost. When reporters inquired whether Mr. O’Toole would demand that all his candidates be vaccinated, he was seen skating.
These five weeks of campaign have seen several twists and turns.
Initially, it will be remembered, the situation in Afghanistan took over in the news. The questions put to Prime Minister Trudeau then focused (rightly) on the thousands of people stranded in Kabul unable to seek refuge in Canada despite Ottawa’s promises.
For his part, Mr. O’Toole sought to position himself as the man “with a plan” to raise Canada from the pandemic. His campaign, however, was marked by procrastination over gun control and support for the fossil fuel industries. The same goes for the green savings account, with which he will probably not go ahead, and the $ 6 billion childcare agreement signed with Quebec by the Liberals, which he says he is ready to discuss. with François Legault.
The leader of the Bloc Québécois, Yves-François Blanchet, struggled to impose himself until the moderator of the Anglophone debate did him an unexpected favor: suggesting that Quebec be racist. In previous weeks, the polls showed a lot of instability in the Bloc vote. It seems that is no longer the case.
The NDP has run a strong campaign built around the idea that its leader, Jagmeet Singh, cares more about Mr. and Mr.me Everyone than Justin Trudeau does. We will know on Monday if his argument was convincing enough.
Incidentally, the Green Party (in full collapse) and the Popular Party (in impressive growth) could cause some surprises.
Inflation is rampant. The fourth wave of COVID-19 is sweeping the country, affecting mostly unvaccinated people. The Liberal machine has never really been able to explain why Canadians were called to the polls, giving the distinct impression that these elections were called only to serve their own interests.
So it’s no surprise that Justin Trudeau’s supporters have been less than enthusiastic – until this week.
The recent outing of Alberta Conservative Premier Jason Kenney may just have been a game-changer. Forced to admit that he lifted his measures to fight COVID-19 too hastily, he now deems necessary the use of the vaccine passport and the return to confinement. An about-face which risks putting spikes in the wheels of the conservative campaign.
Mr. O’Toole has long praised the management of the pandemic in Alberta. Pairing Mr. O’Toole with Mr. Kenney could end the campaign just as the Liberals had hoped.
Ultimately, voters might wonder who is best placed to handle the current pandemic. A question that certainly benefits Mr. Trudeau.