Already, according to VTB’s estimates, the funds of Russian retail investors in the stock market reach 9 trillion rubles, and in the next three years the amount will double by another 9 trillion rubles, said Vladimir Potapov, Chief Executive Officer of VTB Capital Investments in an interview with Vedomosti. … The calculation includes debt securities, quoted shares and funds in mutual funds (UIF).
According to Potapov, people go to the stock market, because first of all they see opportunities there, and the market gives them both in conservative instruments and in risky ones. “Let’s take Russian stocks. It is clear that they have been under very strong pressure over the past few years, when a large number of international investors have left them for various reasons, ”Potapov argues. Today, Russian stocks are trading at one of the cheapest multiples in the world – P / E for 2022 on the RTS index – just about 6x. (P / E – company capitalization / net profit for the year. – Vedomosti). At the same time, the dividend yield is in the region of 9%, being one of the highest in the world, Potapov notes.
“Many international investors used to note the immaturity of the local investor as a minus of the Russian stock market; we are now in the phase of maturity formation,” Popov says. In his opinion, the support for the stock market came not so much from traditional long-term investors – pension funds and insurance companies, but through brokerage accounts and mutual funds of individuals. Potapov considers the arrival of a retail investor to be a long-term phenomenon: “People have felt the benefit of the opportunities that investment opens up.”
According to the latest data from the Central Bank, at the end of the second quarter, citizens kept 7.2 trillion rubles with brokers, in trust the volume of client portfolios amounted to 1.7 trillion rubles, including the portfolios of citizens – 1.2 trillion rubles.
The number of retail investors in the middle of this year reached 14.8 million people, but not every brokerage account is active (when a client makes at least a transaction per month): of the total number of accounts, there are less than 20% of such, according to the materials of the Central Bank. VTB, according to the Moscow Exchange, has 340,218 active clients in October – this is the second broker after Tinkoff in terms of this indicator. The amount of assets of individual clients on brokerage accounts with VTB is 2.5 trillion rubles, Potapov noted.
In America, the share of stocks in portfolios is 60–65% and can go up to 70%, while the Russian investor is more conservative – shares account for 30–40% of the portfolio, says Potapov. The share of investments in VTB’s client portfolio in the Russian stock market is 20-22%, says Potapov. That is, 2 trillion rubles. will come to Russian stocks on the horizon of three years. Another 17% in VTB investor portfolios are foreign shares. The rest is bonds, commodities, funds, alternative investments (real estate and direct investment), Potapov notes.
Vladimir Putin speaking at the Russia Calling! VTB Forum On November 30, he instructed the government to think over how to protect long-term investments of Russians using a mechanism similar to insuring deposits in banks. In addition, he called on the cabinet of ministers to prepare additional proposals for providing private investors with personal income tax deductions for long-term investments in Russian securities, as well as co-financing by the state of such savings.
Now an investor who has an individual investment account (IIA) has the right to one of two types of personal income tax deductions: 13% on the amount of an annual contribution of up to 400,000 rubles. (refund up to 52,000 rubles per year), which gives IIS of the first type, or exemption from taxation of the entire amount of income (when closing an account) – IIS of the second type. In 2020, the Central Bank proposed introducing an IMS of the third type, which will combine a number of parameters of the two existing IMS and is designed for private investments from 10 years. But in parallel, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank see the need to gradually abandon the IMS of the first type.
The funds of retail investors will at least double in the next three years, says Alexei Timofeev, president of the National Association of Stock Market Participants (NAUFOR). But this can be achieved if the existing policy of stimulating investments is maintained, for example, developing both IIS-1 and IIS-3.
Potapov also does not support the initiative to replace the IIS: the account of the first type has not yet fully exhausted itself. It is necessary to see, says Potapov, what the result will be after building the client’s path to receive deductions completely online. In addition, he believes, IIS-1 is the first step for a client who has come to the stock market. “Now, it seems to me, we need to stop at letting the client realize that a very breakthrough innovation in the form of IIS-1 and IIS-2 is not a one-time story, that the tool works stably, it is easy to use it and there are results from it.”
The interest in the stock market, which has grown against the background of low rates in recent years, is obvious, says Andrey Salashchenko, Otkritie Broker Deputy General Director. On the horizon of three years, he estimates that the market could grow by 30% per year. One of the factors may be the emerging industry of independent investment advisers, which, with the proper approach to regulating their activity, can become an additional catalyst for the growth of citizens’ long-term investments in financial instruments, Salashchenko said.
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