2024-10-26 08:27:00
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Telegram channel Letters to my daughter – because of the unhealthy state of the economy, which is very difficult to get rid of.
I wanted to tell you today how someone threatened Russia with war. And then I thought: well, he threatened and threatened. Big deal, right? Some people threaten someone all the time. Because the geopolitical elite has become inflamed and is putting pressure on the decision-making centers.
Besides, some people did not threaten Russia. When someone said that attacks on his sovereignty could lead to war, he meant: “Please don’t give me annexations. I will do whatever you say.”
So, excuse me, I’d rather tell you the boring thing. And not just about boring things, but about other people’s boring things. Because this boring topic for others is directly related to our prosperity and, perhaps, even an early manifestation of our electoral will.
And I will be speaking using individual expressions. In short, I warned you.
Yesterday the Central Bank of Russia raised its main rate. And what is important here is not even that the Central Bank raised this rate, but how it raised it. The Central Bank raised the immediate rate from 19 to 21%. That’s enough for a bet.
And why all? Because the Russian economy was doing much worse than they imagined. Because, on the one hand, the Russian economy is growing more slowly every month than it was growing before. In February, the Russian economy grew at a rate of 7.6%, in May – 4.7%, and in August it grew only 2.4%.
On the other hand, Russian inflation is growing faster every month. And in September, the current price increase accelerated to almost 10%. Or maybe even overtaken 10%, because some people have bad speculation that the Russian authorities slightly underestimate statistics that are unpleasant for themselves.
That is, the Russian economy is growing towards stagnation, and Russian inflation is towards double figures. And if they comply, then stagflation will occur in Russia. When prices rise, but the production does not.
In this particular case of Russia, production is not growing mainly because there is no one to do it. There aren’t many people there. And those who are many, instead of producing socially useful goods, either produce shells, or fire the shells. And they get a lot of money for it. There is more money, but no more socially useful goods. Therefore, prices for socially useful goods are rising.
But there aren’t many people. Therefore, in order for someone to make shells, they must be paid even more. And this makes prices rise even faster. And there are even fewer useful social goods.
And there is no one to produce socially useful goods, because those who produce socially useful goods cannot withstand wage competition with those who produce projectiles. And this makes prices rise even faster.
And the result is not even a vicious circle, but a spiral going into minus infinity. This is an unhealthy state of the economy that is very difficult to get rid of.
Because if you fight inflation, your production of socially useful goods decreases. And if you try to increase production, then inflation rises.
And right now, you can get rid of this unpleasant prospect if you return to the economy the people who lack it. But then there will be no one to make shells and no one to set fire to these shells. And it happened that the war must be stopped. At least for a while.
But it is not true that those who shot and made shells want to return to producing socially useful goods for less money. They may be upset. And when people who know how to shoot are upset, it has a negative effect on social stability.
And again we get a spiral going into minus infinity. When you need to stop the war, but you can not stop the war. Stability will break in any case.
But here everything is the same, adjusted only for the scale of the country. And the fact that, unlike the Russian authorities, the Belarusian authorities believe that everything is fine with them. And so, instead of loosening the spiral, they twist it even tighter. In short, I’m sorry for being boring.
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