2024-02-14 23:00:05
Pork is one of the favorite foods of Chinese New Year. However, in China, the sector does not benefit from this flagship event. Consumers are not there, which worries the market.
On paper, everything seems to be going well in the Chinese pork market. The country rebuilt its herds after the African swine fever crisis in 2018. It decimated a third of the country’s pigs and Beijing then had to import animals en masse, particularly from Europe and South America.
But that period is over. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO, the figures have returned to normal: 58 million tonnes of pork produced in 2023 in China. Prices have fallen. From 37 yuan per kilo live, pork has fallen to around 17 yuan. Prices are slightly rising at the moment, due to the Chinese New Year celebrations, where pig is one of the favored foods.
The ghosts from over the pigs
At first glance, therefore, the situation is stabilized. But is this really the case? According to Jean-Paul Simier, co-author of the Cyclops report on raw materials, “ we must be very careful when we look at the figures mentioned by China “. According to him, swine fever is far from being ancient history, “ we do not know the real health status of Chinese herds ».
China could in fact face a drop in production. If the authorities do not communicate official figures, another data is reliable: Chinese imports of Brazilian soybeans. The plant is used to feed pigs in the country. And Beijing imports less and less. The hypothesis put forward by our expert: pork consumption in China is at half mast.
And the situation could even be even worse. We do not know how much meat Beijing buys to support the industry. This is what the authorities usually do when the market is depressed.
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