2023-10-13 12:29:10
As hundreds of thousands of Israeli soldiers, regular and reservists, mass on Gaza’s borders, the Israeli government faces a difficult situation.
At least 150 hostages captured by armed Hamas militants in southern Israel last Saturday are now being held in secret locations inside Gaza. Among them are women, children and the elderly.
If Israel decides to launch a full-scale ground invasion into Gaza, as some imminently expect, what are the chances that those hostages will survive?
Behind the scenes, Qatar, Egypt and possibly other countries are believed to be trying to negotiate a partial release of those hostages.
One idea being discussed is for Hamas to release women and children prisoners in exchange for 36 Palestinian women and teenagers who are being held in Israeli jails.
But Michael Milstein, a senior analyst at the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Reichman University in Israel, said that while in normal times the number one priority for Israel would be the return of those hostages, currently it is the elimination of Hamas as a military threat.
With tensions and outrage at sky-high levels on both sides, Neither Israel nor Hamas are in the mood for compromise or concessions.
Israeli hostages feared to be held within Gaza’s network of basements and underground tunnelsGETTY IMAGES
Israelis are shocked and outraged that gunmen could so easily breach their southern border and then murder at least 1,200 people, most of them in cold blood.
Palestinians, and not just Hamas, are suffering the onslaught of more than 2,000 Israeli airstrikes against Gaza that have killed more than 1,000 people since Saturday.
Gaza was left without fuel, electricity, water and medicine. Hamas threatened to “execute” a hostage for every Israeli airstrike that kills civilians without warning. There is no evidence that they have done so yet.
At the same time, there are few signs of moderation on Israel’s part. Large areas of Gaza are being intentionally reduced to rubble. However, Milstein believes that Hamas perhaps does not want to retain women, children and the elderly.
They give him a bad image internationally and many of those hostages will require a high degree of care, which is not easy amid constant airstrikes and when Hamas is trying to keep their location a secret.
On the other hand, Hamas will want to make the most of any serving military personnel in its possession, obtaining the highest price for their release if negotiations take place.
Israel’s bombings in Gaza make it difficult to free hostagesGETTY IMAGES
This leaves the Israeli government facing a dilemma when it comes to the hostages.
Attempt an armed rescue mission, which is fraught with risk? Or wait longer, until Hamas is so weakened by the airstrikes that it is more willing to reach an agreement?
That option carries its own risks. Although the hostages are believed to be held underground in tunnels and bunkers, they may not be immune to these airstrikes.
There is always the risk that their captors could kill them, either in a fit of rage or if they fear they are about to be rescued. This happened in Nigeria in 2012 during a failed mission by the Nigerian and British Special Forces to rescue two hostages held by jihadists.
Israel rushed to create a Hostage Crisis Room, compiling everything it knows about the identity and condition of each of the hostages who were dragged at gunpoint across the border into Gaza on Saturday.
Those still held in Israeli territory were rescued by the Israeli military and police Special Forces, who killed all of the Hamas captors. But Michael Milstein, who spent 20 years in Israeli military intelligence, warns that “We don’t have all the data on every house and street in Gaza.”
This is where Hamas lies on its territory, able to hide itself and its hostages in a network of basements and underground tunnels.
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