The Australian edition of The Conversation has published material by Michael Head, Senior Research Fellow at the Department of Global Health at the University of Southampton, which is devoted to the threat of coronavirus in various countries. The specialist emphasized that there is a forecasting problem arising from the concealment of data by some countries. “In addition, some countries may share poor quality data – Belarus, Azerbaijan and Russia may suffer from covid-19 much more than is known about it,” the article says.
However, Head tried to point out countries in which there is a threat of an increase in the number of patients with coronavirus. This is primarily a region of Southeast Asia: Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. In these countries, there was previously a low incidence rate, the population does not have natural immunity, and a very small proportion of the population received the vaccine – 2% in Thailand and 1% in Vietnam.
There is a threat of an intensification of the pandemic in Japan due to population displacement, and this is due to the upcoming Olympics. The scientist calls for abandoning it. In addition, Latin American countries remain at risk.
Coronavirus morbidity and mortality reports may be influenced by local politics. For example, the situation with the coronavirus in Tanzania was hiding. In this country, even President John Magufuli died, and local media write that this is due to the coronavirus. In Belarus, a low mortality rate was reported, but the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation modeled the situation and produced much higher numbers. A similar situation has developed in Azerbaijan.
Population displacement as the cause of the increase in the incidence – this was demonstrated by the United States and Myanmar during the election campaign, the scientist is sure.
Head came to the conclusion that a number of factors may coincide with the coronavirus outbreak, and it is difficult to predict the coming growth, but at least the factors causing it are already known.
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