NASA’s mission to bring back samples from Mars is facing significant challenges and may be impossible to achieve under the current cost and schedule expectations, according to an independent review board. The board’s findings were released in a final report by NASA on Thursday, which stated that the mission, known as Mars Sample Return (MSR), has been plagued by unrealistic budget and schedule expectations from the beginning.
The MSR mission is one of the most complex endeavors ever attempted by NASA and involves multiple spacecraft, including an orbiter, lander, two helicopters, and a rocket, that are planned to be assembled and sent to Mars by 2028. However, the review board has expressed doubts about the feasibility of meeting this timeline, suggesting that a launch readiness target of 2030 would be more realistic.
One of the major issues highlighted by the report is NASA’s struggle to manage the budgeting and scheduling of the mission. To address these concerns, the space agency has formed its own team to review the MSR report and make recommendations for the mission’s path forward by the second quarter of 2024. In the meantime, NASA has put its plans on hold to confirm the official cost and schedule of the mission.
The cost of the MSR mission has been a source of uncertainty, with NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) estimating a minimum requirement of $7 billion in 2020. However, the recent report suggests that the full lifecycle cost could range between $8 billion and $11 billion, raising concerns about potential budget overruns.
In terms of funding, the MSR mission received $822.3 million in the 2023 spending bill, and NASA has requested $949.3 million for the mission in its budget proposal for 2024. To stay on track for a 2028 launch, NASA’s Administrator Bill Nelson has revealed that an additional $250 million is needed in the current fiscal year, along with another $250 million in 2024.
The Senate Appropriations subcommittee has directed NASA to provide a year-by-year funding profile for MSR that aligns with the $5.3 billion lifecycle cost outlined in the 2022 planetary science Decadal Survey. Failure to comply could lead to the cancellation of the mission, according to the subcommittee’s report in July.
Despite the challenges and uncertainties, the independent review board emphasized the importance of the Mars Sample Return mission within NASA’s Mars exploration program. The mission aims to collect rocky samples that may provide insights into the planet’s history and the potential for past or present life on Mars. The report urges NASA to better communicate the significant societal, technological, and scientific impact of the MSR mission, stating that its success could revolutionize our understanding of Mars and the possibilities of life beyond Earth.
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