2024-01-20 12:00:08
In all corners of the Mediterranean Levant, life changed October 7. In it Lebanon, especially in the south, life has never been the same. The escalation of the war is a reality in the areas surrounding the border where the Lebanese militia Hezbollah and the Israeli Army have been fighting daily for more than 100 days. Around 25 Lebanese civilians have been killed in Israeli bombings, including children and journalists, and at least 140 fighters from Hezbollah They have also perished. Across the border, nine Israeli soldiers have lost their lives. But after more than three months of fighting, something seems to have slightly returned to life in Lebanon: the popularity of Hezbollah.
Although its support always remains divided along sectarian lines in a Lebanon with 18 religious groups recognized in the Constitution, the Lebanese militia manages to gain new followers. In a recent survey of Washington Institute has been registered “a increase in approval of Hezbollah in all areas” compared to the last survey in November 2020. Around 34% of sunnis and 29% of Christians They express a positive opinion of the Lebanese political party, but their greatest support continues to come from the community Shia. 93% of them share a positive opinion about Hezbollah and 89% a “very positive” opinion. “Definitely the feeling in the country, especially on the pro-Hizbullah side and people who live in the south, is that Hezbollah is the entity that can protect them against Israeli attacks,” says Laury HighlightsLebanese expert on oil and gas in the Middle East and North Africa.
“Did something”
Since the start of the war between Hamas and Israel on October 7, southern Lebanon has been the scene of raids, bombings and exchanges of fire almost daily clashes between Iranian-backed militias and Jewish forces. The violence has awakened old ghosts among the thousands of Lebanese families who lived a few kilometers from the enemy border and who, in turn, assumed one of the main support bases for Hezbollah. Many might think that the 82.000 personas who have been forcibly displaced by the attacks, according to International Organization of Migrationcould withdraw this support from the militia and political party that, without joining the war, continues with this pressure and distraction strategy against the “Zionist enemy.”
“What Hezbollah is doing with Israel is very calculated“, Haytayan clarifies to EL PERIÓDICO. After three months of constant threats for a possible escalation, including the assassination of a Hamas political leader in the suburbs of Beirut, the Lebanese militia has exposed its strategy. “Hezbollah is not going to fall into the trap of doing some excessive acts that could give Israel the opportunity to enter Lebanese territories and create that buffer that Israel wants today,” he adds. Furthermore, the speeches of its leader, Hasan Nasrallah, show their lack of intention to join a full-scale war. “They don’t have the same support as in the 2006 war and, although they support the Palestinian movement, they do not want a war in Lebanon,” he explains Joseph Hence, Syrian academic and researcher. “Hezbollah can still say, without being massively involved in the war, that it did something,” notes the author of ‘Hizbullah: political economy of the Party of God’ for this newspaper.
Still, before the war, the Iranian-backed militia, now allied with Hamas, was suffering from extensive legitimacy crisis. Hezbollah was born some 41 years ago, in the midst of the Lebanese civil war, with the objectives of establishing a islamic republic in the country, as did its allies in Tehran, and exercise resistance against Israel. They abandoned the first goal a long time ago, but they continued to boast about the second after 15 years with hardly any need to resist due to the absence of confrontations. “Support for Hezbollah has been declining since 2006,” says Daher. “His participation alongside the syrian regime to defeat the uprising was a major blow to their support, and also during the 2019 Lebanon uprisingsince he became the most important actor in the country and considered responsible for the economic crisis like the rest of the political actors and economic class,” he adds.
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Beyond the increase in support at the national level, the strategy that Hezbollah is implementing can also reinforce its role in the region. For now, and the maritime agreement between Israel and Lebanon demonstrated two years ago, “there will be no agreement with Lebanon in relation to the post-Israel-Hamas war or between Israel and Lebanon that does not include Hezbollah,” Haytayan emphasizes. “Hezbollah follows the rules and does not go on an adventure [en estos enfrentamientos] because, at the same time, he is seeing the benefits of it with the Americans“from those who seek to obtain “greater legitimacy” to be “more accepted as those who truly control the country” and who “do not challenge them as before,” adds this Lebanese expert.
But the war has not changed the fact that Lebanon continues to suffer one of the world’s worst economic crises since 1850, according to the World Bank. That’s why a slight majority of Lebanese, as the Washington Institute poll shows, agree that “right now, the internal political and economic reform is more important for our country than any foreign policy issue, so we must stay out of a foreign war.” That is what the local rivals of Hezbollah, such as the Lebanese Forces or the Kataeb. “Every time the Palestinian issue returns, the population of the Middle East unites around the fight against Israel, but a important change regarding Hezbollah’s vision [en el Líbano] It is very difficult since he has stopped being a Lebanese actor, and has established himself as actor regional involved in many other countries and in collaboration with Hamas,” concludes Daher.
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