2024-03-28 08:27:56
I think this is not the final review. during this year, the indicator of 1.6 percent economic growth will probably be revised again. If the negative trends of the Russian economy continue, Armenia may also experience a decline, economist Suren Parsyan expressed his opinion in a conversation with the Aysor.am reporter, referring to the review of the economic growth forecast by the Central Bank.
“In other words, everything depends on the extent of the decline of the Russian economy and the steps taken by the RA government and the Central Bank. Will the latter be able to find alternative markets for the export of Armenian agricultural products in the coming months?” If they cannot, and Russia remains the same market as before, the decline will be greater. The rural sector will suffer a lot, because its share in our GDP is quite large,” said Suren Parsyan.
According to him, the 5.3 percent economic growth forecast of the RA Central Bank for 2022 was more realistic than the government’s forecast of 7 percent.
“Nevertheless, in its preliminary calculations, the Central Bank took into account the situation of last year, in the event that the increase in utility service tariffs was ignored.
In addition, the Russian-Ukrainian war will have a direct impact on the RA economy. According to various estimates, the Russian economy may experience a 5-8 percent decline, therefore this decline will directly affect our economy, our exports and consumption,” said Suren Parsyan.
The economist reminded that the 5.3 percent economic growth forecast of the Central Bank was also due to supposedly increasing remittances.
“But even the World Bank says in its forecasts that remittances coming from abroad will decrease by 19 percent, while the RA government and the Central Bank predicted that remittances will increase. With that in mind, they predicted economic growth, particularly in the services and trade sectors.
At the same time, it is obvious that exports from Armenia will be reduced under the current conditions,” Suren Parsyan summed up.