However seductive the promises of a “New Kazakhstan” formulated in recent months by President Kassym Jomart-Tokaïev, the televised debate of November 11 between the presidential candidates of November 20 had an air of old world. Firstly because of the absence of the incumbent himself, who had chosen the head of the lower house of Parliament to represent him against five candidates who were as little offensive as they were convincing.
A sign of the lack of importance of these games, with the approach of a ballot whose result is beyond doubt, observers believe. Kazakhstan may have turned a page in its history in 2019 when the irremovable Nursultan Nazarbayev, in power since the fall of the USSR, appointed Kassym Jomart-Tokaïev as successor, the country has not yet radically changed its software political, that of an authoritarian presidential regime with no real electoral competition. The stake of the ballot is elsewhere: to consolidate the legitimacy of the outgoing president, damaged by bloody riots in January 2022.
These demonstrations triggered by the rise in the price of gasoline had spread throughout the country, before taking an insurrectionary turn. If the truth about the events remains to be established, many in Kazakhstan suspect the allies of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, furious at being dismissed by Kassym Jomart-Tokaïev, of having taken advantage of the crisis to destabilize the government. The violent clashes left 238 dead, and only ceased after the intervention of troops from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance grouping Russia and several former Soviet republics.
Reform horizon
The January troubles pushed the president to resolutely break with Noursultan Nazarbayev and his allies, some of whom, like Karim Massimov, the powerful head of the KNB (the secret service), were removed from their posts and arrested. Kassym Jomart-Tokaïev also endeavors to draw a horizon of economic and democratic reforms necessary for the country, giving hope for a liberalization of the political regime.
In June, a major constitutional revision is adopted by referendum. The president sees some of his powers reduced, and can only serve one seven-year term, compared to two five-year terms previously. Nursultan Nazarbayev has his honorary title withdrawnThe dress“head of the nation”, in a broader movement aimed at erasing the cult of personality, and removing the clan from the “first president of Kazakhstan”. On September 17, the capital Noursultan, named in 2019 in honor of Nazarbayev, regains its former name of Astana.
In the meantime, Kassym Jomart-Tokaïev has announced the holding of early presidential and legislative elections, scheduled for November 2022 and early 2023 respectively. A way to relegitimize himself by taking advantage of his current popularity. He currently enjoys public favor for having sidelined the Nazarbayev clan and shown a certain independence from Russia since the start of the invasion of Ukraine.
An uncertain democratization
Historical ally of Russia, with which it shares 7,600 kilometers of border, Kazakhstan surprised the international community by refusing to support the Russian invasion. Kassym Jomart-Tokaïev, an experienced diplomat, thus managed to reassure a Kazakh population worried about Russian imperial intrigues by obtaining declarations from powers such as China, the United States or Turkey calling for respect for the territorial integrity of Kazakhstan.
But the war has also worsened an already difficult economic climate, which could complicate the implementation of the reforms promoted by Kassym Jomart-Tokaïev. “Liberalizing the economy and making the state more efficient are good ideas, but these reforms risk being painful”, warns analyst Ben Godwin. According to him, the country missed the opportunity to reform years ago, when higher oil prices would have allowed the hydrocarbon-exporting country to better cushion the blow for the population. In addition to inflation, corruption and nepotism are so many pitfalls on the road to economic reform.
Moreover, if the break seems consummated with the Nazarbayev era, expectations of democratization remain cautious, tempered by a presidential campaign marked by arrests, the instrumentalization of the public media and the disinterest of the population. “This election is a one man showdeplores political scientist Dossym Satpayev. The most important thing is to know if the president will allow in the future the creation of counter-powers, parties and strong political institutions, able to prevent a recurrence of an elite war like in January 2022. Personally, however, the political scientist does not have many hopes.